Diamond Hands

I have a colleague whom I occasionally share lunch with. Two years ago, when Tesla's stock price peaked at around $414 per share (post-split), nearing a $2 trillion valuation, he invested in Tesla shares. I was skeptical and questioned his decision. I asked, "Did you invest all the money you intended to, or do you plan to add more?" He replied that he had invested all at once.

Another acquaintance mentioned that they had bought CVS stock five years prior, and its price hadn't moved since then. Even after another two years, there was no change. While I refrained from openly criticizing their choices, I couldn't help but think they might be making mistakes. Instead, I checked in on them every three months, asking if they still held onto their stocks. Their response was always, "Yes, we're holding on; we have diamond hands."

It seems they might not grasp that, over more than two years, they haven't gained anything and may even be losing money. Furthermore, not only are they potentially losing in the stock market, but inflation is also eroding the value of their money.

I wonder why some people, unfamiliar with the stock market, invest significant sums in just one or a few stocks, only to lose money and then conclude that the stock market isn't for them. If they haven't made an effort to learn about investing, perhaps they should expect these outcomes. The Tesla investor told me recently, "I've done my part; I've also bought a new Tesla. Now it's up to Elon." This kind of perspective leaves me shaking my head in disbelief.

Top Dividend Payers in main account - Annually

 

Advice

No one learned swimming, by reading book about swimming. Another example might be: If you remember, the first time, you saw people playing cricket - you were either attracted to "Ball" or "Bat"; You might have either picked up the ball - and threw it (underarm or overarm) or Perhaps you were attracted to the bat - and tried to "Hit" the ball - You might have missed the ball or hit it. Point is - you did not say to the folks who were playing cricket - wait, let me read a book about cricket - or explain me how to play this game. You just jump right into it - and learn it as and how it happens. 

Investing or Trading is very similar - You cant wait for books to read - and even if you do - you wont learn anything until you have a "Practical" knowledge. In trading - they say 99% of folks lose money - and most of them do - and it takes years before you create a system that works for you - which can consistently reward you with money. 

Even veterans like Buffett makes mistakes. You will make a mistake. But, its up to each individual that how they can minimize those mistakes, use them as learning opportunities and move forward. Because if you survive few years of damage, the amount of money that you can make - you wouldnt have even dream about it. More than money - it will become part of your life - until you die. Also it teaches you various aspects of life - interests you to the areas, that you might have never learned. 

It is not "Easy", nothing in life ever is easy - until you do it and once you do it - Its not "Rocket Science" either. 

Money - Where is it?

119 Trillion in Entire World “Bond” Market.
109 Trillion in Entire World Stock Market.
52 Trillion in US Housing Market
49  Trillion in USA Stock Market
46 Trillion in USA Bond Market.
34 Trillion USA Govt Debt
25  Trillion GDP United States in the year 2022.
25 Trillion US Commercial Real Estate: 
13.7 Trillions is total worth of Gold in the entire World.
13.6 Trillions in IRA Accounts.
9.7 Trillions in Wages each year in USA. 
7.4 Trillions in 401K accounts
6.4 Trillions in Money Market Funds. 
6.2 Trillion United States Govt Spending
4.5 Trillion United States Govt Revenue
2.74 Trillions worth of total CryptoCurrency in the world.
2.26 Trillions US dollars in circulation.
0.5 Trillion worth of Gold Reserve in USA

Inflation CPI Prediction for March 2024

#Inflation, #CPI Prediction for upcoming week We will get 0.3% increase in MoM data and YoY numbers will be around 3.10% for March 2024. We will NOT go below 2% target of Fed in inflation print, anytime this year, but will spend most of the year in between 2 to 3%. At some point, this year, Fed will realize, 2% target is incorrect and we should be ok with 2.5% Inflation in YoY and cut rates.

Top 5 Indian Cricketers from Each Decades

Following are top 5 Indian cricketers from each Decade:

1940's: Lala Amarnath, Vijay Hazare, Hemu Adhikari, CS Nayudu, Syed Mustaq Ali

1950's: Polly Umrigar, Pankaj Roy, Vijay Manjrekar, Subhash Gupte, Vinoo Mankad

1960's: Chandu Borde, Mansur Ali Khan Pataudi, Farokh Engineer, Erapalli Prasanna, Bapu Nadkarni

1970's: Sunil Gavaskar, Gundappa Viswanath, Bishan Bedi, S.Venkataraghavan, B.Chandrashekhar

1980's: Kapil Dev, Ravi Shastri, Dilip Vengsarkar, K.Srikanth, Mohinder Amarnath

1990's: Sachin Tendulkar, Mohd Azharuddin, Anil Kumble, Javagal Srinath, Navjot Singh Sidhu

2000's: Rahul Dravid, Yuvraj Singh, Harbhajan Singh, Zaheer Khan, Saurav Ganguly

2010's: Virat Kohli, M.S.Dhoni, Rohit Sharma, Ravindra Jadeja, Ravi Ashwin

2020's: Jasprit Bumrah, Rishabh Pant, Shubhman Gill, Hardik Pandya, K.L.Rahul 

*Limiting entry for each player in only one decade, else Tendulkar, Gavaskar, Bedi might have been easily picked for two decades. 

2024 1st Quarter

 2024 YearToDate Performances (so far, 1st Quarter)

ROOT 482%

SMCI  255%

MSTR 170%

NVDA  82%

HIMS   73%

CGC    68%

CVNA  66%

CAVA   63%

HOOD  58%

CROX   54%

DKS      53%

COIN    52%

CELH    52%

ERJ.      44%

WING    42%

DECK    40%

NYCB   -68%

RIVN     -53%

NIO       -50%

RDFN    -35%

RUN     -32%

SNAP   -32%

PTON   -29%

TSLA    -29%

ROKU   -28%

SOFI     -26%

BA        -25%

Simple Investing Advice

3 years ago, I wrote a blog for people who are beginners - to invest in stock market.

https://viralpatel15.blogspot.com/2021/03/stock-market-beginner-advice.html

Later on I updated the blog with this edit: 

Follow above method at least for your first 10,000$. Once you reach that threshold and wanted to jump in individual stocks, please invest in any of the following three buckets based on your risk tolerance. 

https://viralpatel15.blogspot.com/2022/04/my-favorites-stock-compilation-list.html

I follow very "complicated" method and have multiple trading/investing accounts. I spend 80 hours a week - because I really love everything about stock market, but I understand most folks do not have time, passion, need or energy to spend lot of time. So, I thought, what could be the "simplest" method - that everyone can follow and came up with the following. 

Please keep an eye on Top 20 stocks that I select in my "Cream" portfolio. I update them rarely (on an average could be twice in three months), and invest "DAILY" or "WEEKLY" in those stocks based on your risk tolerance. I invest 5$ Daily in those 20 stocks. That would be 1260$ per year for each stock and that would be roughly 25000$ each year. If you can't afford 25K per year, you can reduce amount to 2$ per day or 3$ per day or 5$ per week (whatever works best for you). If you can afford, more sure, you can also do 10$ per day. This is very simple to do - once you set it up in Robinhood (or any other trading platform which allows fraction stocks buying), it won't even take 30 minutes of your time per month. Extremely Doable - in my opinion. 

    List for 2023 can be found here: https://viralpatel15.blogspot.com/2022/12/robinhood-portfolio-recurring-buying.html

    List for 2024 can be found here: https://viralpatel15.blogspot.com/2023/12/2024-stocks-picks.html

They say - index investing is the best option, but indexes will not give you extra ordinary return. Picks from 2023 are already up 130% in less than a year and half. I can't guarantee you - that my picks will always outperform - no one can but I sure as hell believe that they will be and short term results do indicate that. 

Although - I don't have screen shot from Finviz, but I am doing stock picking from 2018 and each year have outperformed SPY - Well not in 2022. 

For me - it is not easy to pick those 20 stocks. In my robinhood account - I have 1800 stocks. In another Robinhood account - I have 450 stocks. I trade regularly in my TD Ameritrade account and my holding period in "Trading" account is in between 1 day to 60 days. I follow - different method/philosophy for my trading account. Perhaps I can explain how I trade in a separate blog - but let me tell you - I am not the best of the trader, I lose money in trading, but I have not lost money in "Investing", because in "Investing" I buy stocks with the mentality to hold them forever. Investing is the best way to create generational wealth. Trading is "fun" though - keeps you waiting for Monday Morning. I also have M1-Finance account, where I pick 20 stocks for the week - buy them on Monday morning and Sell them next Monday morning with new set of stocks - depending upon which stock charts are looking good in the weekend. 

There is a lot of analysis and thinking that goes behind picking 20 stocks. It is years of experience - years of following market trend - looking at the charts - looking at company fundamentals - studying their earnings report - listening to experts opinion on cnbc and bloomberg and what not. I hope - my thoughts and picks helps people in their respective investing/trading journey. 

I will continue to share my thoughts on Twitter - viralpatel15 on regular basis. 

Quarterly Portfolio Adjustments

Making bunch of changes in the portfolio's after March Options Expiry. 

In the Top 20 Portfolio - Removing #ON, #MDB, #EXPE, #RBLX, #Z (all are down more than 10% from my buying price back in last week of December, 2023), they are moving out of $5 recurring buy on daily basis and moved down to $3 per day buying range. Replacing them from $3 Daily recurring buy are: #SE, #PLTR, #ONON, #LYFT and #AI 

Similarly, 2 stocks are moving out from $3 Daily Buy list - #TTWO and #ETSY; Replacing them are: #GCT and #NCLH

Similarly, 5 stocks are moving out of $2 Daily buy list - #TSLA, #BA, #AFRM, #WHR, #BHP; Replacing them are: #AMD, #ERJ, #CYBR, #BLDR and #MNDY. 

Wholesale changes in the lower tier portfolio where I buy 1$ daily - Removing 7 stocks from that list - #PATH, #ZTS, #DV, #RUN, #ADBE, #GSHD, #ASAN. Replacing them are: #JMIA, #SG, #NNOX, #APP, #OSCR, #HIMS and #BAND. 

Also, last but not the least - Removing 6 stocks from the bottom pile where I buy 3$ each week. Removing #S, #UI, #DT, #AMBA, #CHPT and #FVRR. Replacing them with: #XOMA, #MPW, #MHK, #SAVA, #PDD, #SQSP 

Next set of big changes might happen after June Option Expiry Week. 

IPL-2024 SQUADS

Basics

Felt it is important to explain how I am "Investing" and "Trading" in the market and at a high level thinking behind what I am doing and why I am doing it.  

Philosophy behind what I do can be explained in 7 key points: 

7 Key Recommendations: 

1. Please Please Please - Keep “Investing” and “Trading” accounts as separate. 
2. “Invest” your money - with a longer time horizon. 10 years, 20 years or even more. 
3. Start small (even as low as 5$), but do it repetitively, buy daily or weekly (Utilize, Auto Invest feature)
4. First 10,000$, invest it on “Index” Funds such as #SPY, #QQQ, #IWM, #FXI, #INDA etc. (https://viralpatel15.blogspot.com/2021/03/stock-market-beginner-advice.html) 
5. Do not try to “Time” the market, Do not think this is the Top (and sell) or Do not think this is the Bottom (and buy). 
6. “Invest” in you - products and services that you get from various companies such as Costco, Netflix, Apple, Nike, Starbucks, Chipotle etc. 
7. Only after you have spend 10,000 hours reading-learning about the market, you may try to “Trade” in the market. Learn some basic skills of charting the stock, about moving averages, relative strength indicator etc. Always trade with small amount during learning period. Find your niche - whether you are good in - Day Trading, Swing Trading, Long Term Trading, Options (buying or selling), and stick to it until you have perfected the method. 

My near term goal is to have 1 Million US Dollars invested in the stocks in the "Investing" account. Obviously, I do not have 1 million dollars, I started with 5$ and every day I buy lot many stocks through "Auto-Invest" feature in Robinhood Account. Initially I started with the following set up: 

My set up in one of the Robinhood Accounts for fraction stocks. I buy 5$ each day in my top 20 stocks, 3$ in 30 other stocks, 2$ in next 30 stocks, 1$ in left over 60 stocks (Total of 140 Stocks) and 10 ETF's (another 35$ daily) ...Total comes around $345 on daily basis...(252 Trading days) so 345*252 = $86,940 each year. 

However, I changed that this year and now, I buy 5$ each day in my top 20 stocks, 3$ in 30 other stocks, 2$ in next 40 stocks (most of them pays Dividend), 1$ in next 50 stocks and 10 ETF's where I buy 5$ each. On top of it, I do have another Robin hood account where I buy 150 risky stocks but I buy only 3$ and that too weekly so roughly 450$ each week in it. In that same portfolio, I also buy 2$ in Bitcoin and 2$ in Ethereum each day. 

Plus - I have another theory which goes something like - "Winners Keep on Winning" - Initially when I started that - I tracked Top 5 stocks in each category (Mega Cap, Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Micro Cap) and buy 2$ each week in 5 stocks from Mega Cap, 4$ in Large Cap, 6$ in Mid Cap, 8$ in Small Cap and 10$ in Micro Cap. After doing it for a year or so, I realized there was a lot of pump and dump in Micro Cap and that 10$ was getting converted into 0$ by 3 or 6 months. So I changed that method, and now I am doing reverse, which is 10$ in Mega Cap, 8 in Large, 6 in Mid Cap, 4 in Small cap and 2$ in risky micro cap. So, at least I will be losing 2$ in that risky category - Well 10$ risk per week as it is 5 stocks that I invest in. One of the sample-example would be the following tweet: so based on that I would be buying 10$ in NVO, 8$ in DXCM etc...

Plus - Each Week - I pick weekly picklist, from that pick - for each pick, I buy 5$ in the long term investing portfolio. I try to look at the 300+ charts each week in the weekend to find out which stocks are bottoming out or breaking out and pick the 20 stocks. From that there are 5 stocks which I think are good picks for long terms. One of the criteria for that long term pick is that company should give 10X return over 10 years or it should give at least more than 3 to 5% Dividend. One of the sample-example is below Tweet: 

Also, I have a small size M1 Finance Portfolio - where I pick the above 20 picks where I would buy these stocks on Monday Morning and Sell them on Friday evening. I have been doing this for now more than 2 years and ratio of beating market (SPY) is not that impressive, but hey early days, but my motive is not just to beat index on weekly basis, it is also the fact that this exercise helps me prepare for the upcoming week - sort of list of stocks that I might be looking to buy and sell during trading hours in "TRADING PORTFOLIO". 

Now, the important - "Trading Portfolio" - This is (not so small) portfolio, but I have some hard core rules in them. There is no long term in the trading portfolio. Its strictly on the basis of - if the stock is in uptrend, giving me money, it will be in it. If it sells of 8% from my buying price, I get rid of it. I also buy some options in the trading portfolio. Trading Portfolio at this point is for "Fun". Investing portfolio is the real deal. When I do lot of tweets - that I am buying this or selling this - it is usually for short term in the trading portfolio - based on charts and indicators and option flows and what not. 

Usually, most folks what they do - is make money in trading portfolio and whatever they gain they put it in the investing portfolio. Because most of them does not have big capital to invest. However, Robinhood has changed that. We dont need to have lot of dollars to invest. Even 1$ is good enough. As and when we keep getting dollars saved, we can keep on adding it in the investing portfolio and after time - it will grow. You do not have to "copy" me- Please do not copy me or my methods - but create your own, based on your risk appetite and your desire to grow. 

There might still be lot of questions on the method - but thought I should explain in short on how I am planning to construct my investing portfolio and keep trading activities separate in trading account. 

Investing Advice

 

One of the worst things you can do in the investing is go in with large amount of money. Most retail newbie investors want to come in the market when they have accumulated significant amount of money and ask their friends - what should I buy? That significant amount usually is around 10,000$. Second mistake that they do is - buy something which is usually in the news. It could be Tesla or Apple or Nvidia (in today’s time). 

You dont start investing with big amount and you certainly dont put that in one or 2-3 big names that you know. You start investing with extremely small amount. And you invest it on every week - month basis. Thanks to Robinhood - now we can invest in fraction stocks - so you can jump in the market in the very first 5$ you make. Put 1$ (20% of your 5$) in the market. And Observe what that 1$ is doing. If it is growing to 1.10$ in a week - you are in the right track - invest a next 1$ in it. If it goes down - wait - you could be wrong - Find some other stock and so on. 

“Time” in the market is more important than timing the market. Grow iteratively but consistently. Make investing like a habit - just like you brush your teeth in the morning - same way - for every 5$ you earn - put 1 in the market. Diversify to 20-30 good companies. Give time for your dollar to do the work. In 5-10 years - market will reward you handsomely. 

Dont wait till you have 1000$ or 10000$ or 50000$ - Do it from the very first paycheck you get. 

When you are picking a stock - Dont think you are smart or someone you are talking to or giving advice is smart (including me). Top 10 companies in 2000 were Microsoft, GE, Cisco, Walmart, Exxon, Intel, Lucent, IBM, Citigroup and AOL…..Apart from Microsoft, all others are underperformed, so whatever 10 companies that are top and trending such as Tesla, Meta, NVDA, Apple etc, may not be top 10 companies 20 years from today. 

Let me give couple of examples: A friend had 5000$ to invest, at that time, Amazon stock price was 2400$….so he bought two shares….Guess what happened? Amazon tanked after that, went to 1200$…and it took 2 and half year plus, when it came back to 2400….a friend was frustrated enough to hold it for no gain, when Amazon went to 2600$ …he sold for cheap gain…only to see Amazon keep going higher….Again same two mistakes…Go all in (not realizing you are probably buying at the top)….

Second example: A friend bought his first stock - Tesla - thinking Tesla is the future…before Split (after split price of 440$ now)….Its been 3 plus years, Tesla is still trading at half the value. Whenever I meet him, I talk about him and his ego says to me “I am Diamond Hands”….sure …I have seen that movie too many times. 

Trading Issues

As far as my investing journey is concerned, most of the set up's are already done in Robinhood account. There are bunch of recurring buy set up for 300 stocks on a daily basis. There is about a hour or so, that I do spend on every week - to adjust those portfolio's, just in case, I need to move around a bit. 

However - my "Trading" journey needs some changes. There are two issues with it. First one is - due to long break (since I try to avoid trading on Fridays), so three day breaks on a normal weekend and four day break during long weekends, when I start the week, I end up taking 30-40 trades (new buys, some sell etc) on a daily basis. Some of the experienced traders I know - initiate only 3 new trades (buy) in a day. They even avoid 4th trade. Reason, they are able to do that, is because they have lot of experience trading in the market (10+ years) on a daily basis, and have developed a somewhat profitable trading system. Because of that, they are able to initiate a position which can be as big as 8 to 10% of their portfolio size. 

I am afraid to put even 4% of my portfolio size in a single stock (in trading portfolio). Even though I have a sharp stop loss system, and I am monitoring that position on every day (hell every minute), I just do not have guts to go big. For riskier trades, my size allocation is even less than 1% of my portfolio size. (again trading portfolio size). So that is the number 1 issue I am trying to resolve - how to take less trades in a day and go for bigger size or be comfortable with the size of the trade. 

Second issue is still FOMO - when you are in the group and social media, where folks are posting screen shots and big profit percentage gains etc - how to remain discipline on not to divert from your trading plan. Plus - when I was trading options - even with lesser size portfolio, there were weeks, when my gain were 10,000$ or even 18000$ - and now, my gains are limited to 1000$ since I buy mostly stocks (may be couple of longer dated options calls once in a while). 

This is work in progress - to get rid of the "Fear" factor. 

Portfolio Updates

 

Long Term Trade Logic

If you are planning to buy or have already bought a stock for a trade - and in the process of deciding whether to keep that trade or sell it - following is the logic I apply. Thought to share the logic for one of the beaten down stock (Paypal). 

This is the Paypal Weekly Chart: 

This is slightly zoomed in chart: 

As you can see in the chart - you will be able to identify recent low and recent high price. Recent low was in the month of October for the price of 50.25. When stock goes above 20% from the recent low price - it is considered to be in it's bull market. It takes lot of buying of a stock to fetch it above 20% and that means, buyers are considering that as a good long term trade/investment. 20% above 50.25 would be around 60.30. Recent high in December for Paypal was 64.13$ (which means it went above 60.30 price target) and is in the bull market of its own. So, you buy the dip in the bull market - whenever presented. 

However, reverse theory is also applicable, which is when stock is below 20% from its recent high - it is in the bear market. So 64.13's 20% would be somewhere 51.30$. So if Paypal closes below 51.30, you get out of that stock as it is in its bear market. Until then, Buy the Dip. 

Prediction for 2024 in Stocks

Admittedly, maintaining a clear chain of thought and an open mind regarding the market's reaction as the new year approaches is a simpler task. This is particularly crucial for active traders who are deeply involved in the market. Conversely, for those focused on long-term investments, a different mindset is necessary. It involves disregarding short-term fluctuations, staying steadfast, and exercising patience.

Last year, I significantly reduced my trading account margin to nearly 50%, bringing it close to a cash position. I am now prepared to allocate new funds based on the trends anticipated in the upcoming year. However, I must acknowledge that I am not yet a seasoned expert, having only five years of experience in the market. Despite this, I find excitement in the unpredictable nature of the market and continue to navigate the game of anticipating future developments.

Before delving into those questions, there are three uncertainties for which I lack answers:

1. Does oil have a future?
2. Will money flow into the Chinese market?
3. What is the Federal Reserve's plan regarding its balance sheet?

Details below: 

As observed, the global shift towards renewable energy is evident, especially with the electric vehicle revolution spurred by substantial government support worldwide. Although oil remains extensively utilized in various sectors, the production of electric vehicles and the requisite infrastructure are not yet at a level to entirely replace traditional vehicles. President Biden mentioned last year that oil is projected to persist for the next decade, but investors, known for their proactive stance, may not wait if they perceive an industry as lacking a future. Interestingly, the past two years witnessed significant momentum in many oil stocks. Whether this momentum will continue into 2024 remains a substantial question. The trajectory could be influenced by several factors, including global elections, particularly in the USA. The outcome of the elections, particularly if Trump were to win, might reinvigorate optimism in the oil industry. However, it's crucial to note that this scenario is speculative and contingent on numerous factors.

The Chinese market has experienced a substantial correction since early 2021, reaching a point where many investors are eagerly awaiting signs of a potential turnaround. A notable example is Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce giant, which has seen its revenue soar from $10 billion in 2014 to nearly $130 billion. Despite this impressive growth, its stock price and market capitalization have remained stagnant. Currently, with a profit of $20 billion, Alibaba is trading at a remarkably low P/E ratio of less than 8, indicating significant undervaluation.

However, the prevailing downturn in Chinese stocks is often attributed to external factors, with some suggesting that it may be a consequence of Western scrutiny, possibly linked to the COVID-19 pandemic or concerns about China's economic ascent challenging the USA's position. This situation, seen by some as a form of Western reprimand, has led to suppressed valuations for Chinese companies.

Nevertheless, the sheer scale of China's economic growth and the robust financial performance of companies like Alibaba make them potentially attractive opportunities. As sentiments evolve and perceptions shift, it is anticipated that money will eventually flow back into the Chinese market, driven by the undeniable allure of its substantial economic expansion. The undervalued nature of companies like Alibaba, despite their remarkable growth, might be too compelling for investors to ignore in the long run.

Last but not the least - Fed. In the coming months, the Federal Reserve's decisions will significantly influence the market dynamics. While the market anticipates up to six rate cuts in 2024, the Fed has only officially announced three in their recent meeting. The likely scenario may fall somewhere in between, perhaps around four rate cuts, considering the current low unemployment figures. The Fed is unlikely to rush given the stable employment situation, and the number of rate cuts may be contingent on inflation staying within the 2 to 3% Year over Year range.

The specific number of rate cuts, whether it be three, four, or six, may not have a drastic impact on the market. However, the uncertainty lies in the Fed's approach to its balance sheet. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed's balance sheet ballooned from 3 trillion to 9 trillion due to a substantial injection of funds into the economy. While they have reduced it by one trillion so far, the future trajectory remains uncertain.

The question revolves around whether the Fed will expedite balance sheet reduction in response to significant bond buying activity in the market, potentially aiming to bring it down to 6 trillion. This move would involve withdrawing 2 trillion from the market. The timing and strategy the Fed adopts for this process remain uncertain, and it will be a crucial factor to watch in understanding the broader economic landscape.

Financial Stocks, Big Banks, and FinTech (e.g., PayPal and SoFi):

The potential uninversion of the yield curve due to reduced rate cuts is likely to benefit financial stocks, especially big banks. Additionally, FinTech companies, like PayPal and SoFi, could see positive impacts from these market dynamics.

Biotech Stocks:

Despite the usual rhetoric on reducing drug prices during election years, the chart patterns of biotech stocks suggest a decade-long base, indicating a potentially safe sector to invest in.

Material Stocks:

Material stocks, which have faced declines due to a reduction in inflation, may witness increased activity in the second half of the year. This could be driven by a resurgence in commodity buying, excluding oil.

Tech Sectors (Cloud, Chips, and Cybersecurity):

Companies in the technology sector, especially those involved in cloud computing, chip manufacturing, and cybersecurity, may continue to see momentum. In an environment of decreasing inflation, companies capable of maintaining high prices are likely to sustain growth.

Cryptocurrency:

The crypto market is anticipated to maintain its momentum, with the possibility of Bitcoin revisiting its all-time high. This aligns with the broader trend of increasing interest and adoption of cryptocurrencies.

Small Caps and Bonds: Small caps (IWM) have also formed long base of going nowhere for last five years and with reduction in interest rate and small caps having plenty of regional banks in it - most likely will outperform major indexes such as SPY, QQQ.

My detail lists of stock picks are listed here: https://viralpatel15.blogspot.com/2023/12/2024-stocks-picks.html