Friday, March 29, 2024

Top 5 Indian Cricketers from Each Decades

Following are top 5 Indian cricketers from each Decade:

1940's: Lala Amarnath, Vijay Hazare, Hemu Adhikari, CS Nayudu, Syed Mustaq Ali

1950's: Polly Umrigar, Pankaj Roy, Vijay Manjrekar, Subhash Gupte, Vinoo Mankad

1960's: Chandu Borde, Mansur Ali Khan Pataudi, Farokh Engineer, Erapalli Prasanna, Bapu Nadkarni

1970's: Sunil Gavaskar, Gundappa Viswanath, Bishan Bedi, S.Venkataraghavan, B.Chandrashekhar

1980's: Kapil Dev, Ravi Shastri, Dilip Vengsarkar, K.Srikanth, Mohinder Amarnath

1990's: Sachin Tendulkar, Mohd Azharuddin, Anil Kumble, Javagal Srinath, Navjot Singh Sidhu

2000's: Rahul Dravid, Yuvraj Singh, Harbhajan Singh, Zaheer Khan, Saurav Ganguly

2010's: Virat Kohli, M.S.Dhoni, Rohit Sharma, Ravindra Jadeja, Ravi Ashwin

2020's: Jasprit Bumrah, Rishabh Pant, Shubhman Gill, Hardik Pandya, K.L.Rahul 

*Limiting entry for each player in only one decade, else Tendulkar, Gavaskar, Bedi might have been easily picked for two decades. 

Thursday, March 28, 2024

2024 1st Quarter

 2024 YearToDate Performances (so far, 1st Quarter)


ROOT 482%

SMCI  255%

MSTR 170%

NVDA  82%

HIMS   73%

CGC    68%

CVNA  66%

CAVA   63%

HOOD  58%

CROX   54%

DKS      53%

COIN    52%

CELH    52%

ERJ.      44%

WING    42%

DECK    40%



NYCB   -68%

RIVN     -53%

NIO       -50%

RDFN    -35%

RUN     -32%

SNAP   -32%

PTON   -29%

TSLA    -29%

ROKU   -28%

SOFI     -26%

BA        -25%

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Simple Investing Advice

3 years ago, I wrote a blog for people who are beginners - to invest in stock market.

https://viralpatel15.blogspot.com/2021/03/stock-market-beginner-advice.html

Later on I updated the blog with this edit: 

Follow above method at least for your first 10,000$. Once you reach that threshold and wanted to jump in individual stocks, please invest in any of the following three buckets based on your risk tolerance. 


https://viralpatel15.blogspot.com/2022/04/my-favorites-stock-compilation-list.html

I follow very "complicated" method and have multiple trading/investing accounts. I spend 80 hours a week - because I really love everything about stock market, but I understand most folks do not have time, passion, need or energy to spend lot of time. So, I thought, what could be the "simplest" method - that everyone can follow and came up with the following. 

Please keep an eye on Top 20 stocks that I select in my "Cream" portfolio. I update them rarely (on an average could be twice in three months), and invest "DAILY" or "WEEKLY" in those stocks based on your risk tolerance. I invest 5$ Daily in those 20 stocks. That would be 1260$ per year for each stock and that would be roughly 25000$ each year. If you can't afford 25K per year, you can reduce amount to 2$ per day or 3$ per day or 5$ per week (whatever works best for you). If you can afford, more sure, you can also do 10$ per day. This is very simple to do - once you set it up in Robinhood (or any other trading platform which allows fraction stocks buying), it won't even take 30 minutes of your time per month. Extremely Doable - in my opinion. 

    List for 2023 can be found here: https://viralpatel15.blogspot.com/2022/12/robinhood-portfolio-recurring-buying.html

    List for 2024 can be found here: https://viralpatel15.blogspot.com/2023/12/2024-stocks-picks.html


They say - index investing is the best option, but indexes will not give you extra ordinary return. Picks from 2023 are already up 130% in less than a year and half. I can't guarantee you - that my picks will always outperform - no one can but I sure as hell believe that they will be and short term results do indicate that. 

Although - I don't have screen shot from Finviz, but I am doing stock picking from 2018 and each year have outperformed SPY - Well not in 2022. 

For me - it is not easy to pick those 20 stocks. In my robinhood account - I have 1800 stocks. In another Robinhood account - I have 450 stocks. I trade regularly in my TD Ameritrade account and my holding period in "Trading" account is in between 1 day to 60 days. I follow - different method/philosophy for my trading account. Perhaps I can explain how I trade in a separate blog - but let me tell you - I am not the best of the trader, I lose money in trading, but I have not lost money in "Investing", because in "Investing" I buy stocks with the mentality to hold them forever. Investing is the best way to create generational wealth. Trading is "fun" though - keeps you waiting for Monday Morning. I also have M1-Finance account, where I pick 20 stocks for the week - buy them on Monday morning and Sell them next Monday morning with new set of stocks - depending upon which stock charts are looking good in the weekend. 

There is a lot of analysis and thinking that goes behind picking 20 stocks. It is years of experience - years of following market trend - looking at the charts - looking at company fundamentals - studying their earnings report - listening to experts opinion on cnbc and bloomberg and what not. I hope - my thoughts and picks helps people in their respective investing/trading journey. 

I will continue to share my thoughts on Twitter - viralpatel15 on regular basis. 





Sunday, March 17, 2024

Quarterly Portfolio Adjustments

Making bunch of changes in the portfolio's after March Options Expiry. 

In the Top 20 Portfolio - Removing #ON, #MDB, #EXPE, #RBLX, #Z (all are down more than 10% from my buying price back in last week of December, 2023), they are moving out of $5 recurring buy on daily basis and moved down to $3 per day buying range. Replacing them from $3 Daily recurring buy are: #SE, #PLTR, #ONON, #LYFT and #AI 

Similarly, 2 stocks are moving out from $3 Daily Buy list - #TTWO and #ETSY; Replacing them are: #GCT and #NCLH

Similarly, 5 stocks are moving out of $2 Daily buy list - #TSLA, #BA, #AFRM, #WHR, #BHP; Replacing them are: #AMD, #ERJ, #CYBR, #BLDR and #MNDY. 

Wholesale changes in the lower tier portfolio where I buy 1$ daily - Removing 7 stocks from that list - #PATH, #ZTS, #DV, #RUN, #ADBE, #GSHD, #ASAN. Replacing them are: #JMIA, #SG, #NNOX, #APP, #OSCR, #HIMS and #BAND. 

Also, last but not the least - Removing 6 stocks from the bottom pile where I buy 3$ each week. Removing #S, #UI, #DT, #AMBA, #CHPT and #FVRR. Replacing them with: #XOMA, #MPW, #MHK, #SAVA, #PDD, #SQSP 

Next set of big changes might happen after June Option Expiry Week. 

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Sunday, March 10, 2024

Basics

Felt it is important to explain how I am "Investing" and "Trading" in the market and at a high level thinking behind what I am doing and why I am doing it.  

Philosophy behind what I do can be explained in 7 key points: 

7 Key Recommendations: 


  1. Please Please Please - Keep “Investing” and “Trading” accounts as separate. 
  2. “Invest” your money - with a longer time horizon. 10 years, 20 years or even more. 
  3. Start small (even as low as 5$), but do it repetitively, buy daily or weekly (Utilize, Auto Invest feature)
  4. First 10,000$, invest it on “Index” Funds such as #SPY, #QQQ, #IWM, #FXI, #INDA etc. (https://viralpatel15.blogspot.com/2021/03/stock-market-beginner-advice.html) 
  5. Do not try to “Time” the market, Do not think this is the Top (and sell) or Do not think this is the Bottom (and buy). 
  6. “Invest” in you - products and services that you get from various companies such as Costco, Netflix, Apple, Nike, Starbucks, Chipotle etc. 
  7. Only after you have spend 10,000 hours reading-learning about the market, you may try to “Trade” in the market. Learn some basic skills of charting the stock, about moving averages, relative strength indicator etc. Always trade with small amount during learning period. Find your niche - whether you are good in - Day Trading, Swing Trading, Long Term Trading, Options (buying or selling), and stick to it until you have perfected the method. 

My near term goal is to have 1 Million US Dollars invested in the stocks in the "Investing" account. Obviously, I do not have 1 million dollars, I started with 5$ and every day I buy lot many stocks through "Auto-Invest" feature in Robinhood Account. Initially I started with the following set up: 

My set up in one of the Robinhood Accounts for fraction stocks. I buy 5$ each day in my top 20 stocks, 3$ in 30 other stocks, 2$ in next 30 stocks, 1$ in left over 60 stocks (Total of 140 Stocks) and 10 ETF's (another 35$ daily) ...Total comes around $345 on daily basis...(252 Trading days) so 345*252 = $86,940 each year. 

However, I changed that this year and now, I buy 5$ each day in my top 20 stocks, 3$ in 30 other stocks, 2$ in next 40 stocks (most of them pays Dividend), 1$ in next 50 stocks and 10 ETF's where I buy 5$ each. On top of it, I do have another Robin hood account where I buy 150 risky stocks but I buy only 3$ and that too weekly so roughly 450$ each week in it. In that same portfolio, I also buy 2$ in Bitcoin and 2$ in Ethereum each day. 

Plus - I have another theory which goes something like - "Winners Keep on Winning" - Initially when I started that - I tracked Top 5 stocks in each category (Mega Cap, Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Micro Cap) and buy 2$ each week in 5 stocks from Mega Cap, 4$ in Large Cap, 6$ in Mid Cap, 8$ in Small Cap and 10$ in Micro Cap. After doing it for a year or so, I realized there was a lot of pump and dump in Micro Cap and that 10$ was getting converted into 0$ by 3 or 6 months. So I changed that method, and now I am doing reverse, which is 10$ in Mega Cap, 8 in Large, 6 in Mid Cap, 4 in Small cap and 2$ in risky micro cap. So, at least I will be losing 2$ in that risky category - Well 10$ risk per week as it is 5 stocks that I invest in. One of the sample-example would be the following tweet: so based on that I would be buying 10$ in NVO, 8$ in DXCM etc...




Plus - Each Week - I pick weekly picklist, from that pick - for each pick, I buy 5$ in the long term investing portfolio. I try to look at the 300+ charts each week in the weekend to find out which stocks are bottoming out or breaking out and pick the 20 stocks. From that there are 5 stocks which I think are good picks for long terms. One of the criteria for that long term pick is that company should give 10X return over 10 years or it should give at least more than 3 to 5% Dividend. One of the sample-example is below Tweet: 





Also, I have a small size M1 Finance Portfolio - where I pick the above 20 picks where I would buy these stocks on Monday Morning and Sell them on Friday evening. I have been doing this for now more than 2 years and ratio of beating market (SPY) is not that impressive, but hey early days, but my motive is not just to beat index on weekly basis, it is also the fact that this exercise helps me prepare for the upcoming week - sort of list of stocks that I might be looking to buy and sell during trading hours in "TRADING PORTFOLIO". 

Now, the important - "Trading Portfolio" - This is (not so small) portfolio, but I have some hard core rules in them. There is no long term in the trading portfolio. Its strictly on the basis of - if the stock is in uptrend, giving me money, it will be in it. If it sells of 8% from my buying price, I get rid of it. I also buy some options in the trading portfolio. Trading Portfolio at this point is for "Fun". Investing portfolio is the real deal. When I do lot of tweets - that I am buying this or selling this - it is usually for short term in the trading portfolio - based on charts and indicators and option flows and what not. 

Usually, most folks what they do - is make money in trading portfolio and whatever they gain they put it in the investing portfolio. Because most of them does not have big capital to invest. However, Robinhood has changed that. We dont need to have lot of dollars to invest. Even 1$ is good enough. As and when we keep getting dollars saved, we can keep on adding it in the investing portfolio and after time - it will grow. You do not have to "copy" me- Please do not copy me or my methods - but create your own, based on your risk appetite and your desire to grow. 

There might still be lot of questions on the method - but thought I should explain in short on how I am planning to construct my investing portfolio and keep trading activities separate in trading account. 

Sunday, March 3, 2024

Investing Advice

 

One of the worst things you can do in the investing is go in with large amount of money. Most retail newbie investors want to come in the market when they have accumulated significant amount of money and ask their friends - what should I buy? That significant amount usually is around 10,000$. Second mistake that they do is - buy something which is usually in the news. It could be Tesla or Apple or Nvidia (in today’s time). 


You dont start investing with big amount and you certainly dont put that in one or 2-3 big names that you know. You start investing with extremely small amount. And you invest it on every week - month basis. Thanks to Robinhood - now we can invest in fraction stocks - so you can jump in the market in the very first 5$ you make. Put 1$ (20% of your 5$) in the market. And Observe what that 1$ is doing. If it is growing to 1.10$ in a week - you are in the right track - invest a next 1$ in it. If it goes down - wait - you could be wrong - Find some other stock and so on. 


“Time” in the market is more important than timing the market. Grow iteratively but consistently. Make investing like a habit - just like you brush your teeth in the morning - same way - for every 5$ you earn - put 1 in the market. Diversify to 20-30 good companies. Give time for your dollar to do the work. In 5-10 years - market will reward you handsomely. 


Dont wait till you have 1000$ or 10000$ or 50000$ - Do it from the very first paycheck you get. 


When you are picking a stock - Dont think you are smart or someone you are talking to or giving advice is smart (including me). Top 10 companies in 2000 were Microsoft, GE, Cisco, Walmart, Exxon, Intel, Lucent, IBM, Citigroup and AOL…..Apart from Microsoft, all others are underperformed, so whatever 10 companies that are top and trending such as Tesla, Meta, NVDA, Apple etc, may not be top 10 companies 20 years from today. 


Let me give couple of examples: A friend had 5000$ to invest, at that time, Amazon stock price was 2400$….so he bought two shares….Guess what happened? Amazon tanked after that, went to 1200$…and it took 2 and half year plus, when it came back to 2400….a friend was frustrated enough to hold it for no gain, when Amazon went to 2600$ …he sold for cheap gain…only to see Amazon keep going higher….Again same two mistakes…Go all in (not realizing you are probably buying at the top)….


Second example: A friend bought his first stock - Tesla - thinking Tesla is the future…before Split (after split price of 440$ now)….Its been 3 plus years, Tesla is still trading at half the value. Whenever I meet him, I talk about him and his ego says to me “I am Diamond Hands”….sure …I have seen that movie too many times.