Monday, December 27, 2021

2022 - Risky Small Cap Stock Picks

 Following 20 stocks are my picks for 2022 which are categorized as small cap (as all of them are valued below 10 Billion Dollars). They are up significantly in 2021 - hence there is a risk associated with these names, but some of them will continue to find buyers in 2022 and are good long term picks. 

2 PM - Dec 27 Price

AMBA 208.35

BMBL 33.84

BOOT 122.9

BROS 52.47

CELH 74.39

CPE         53

CROX 127.63

CYBR 176.8

DOCN 84.38

GLBE 61.43

HIMX 13.82

HUT 8.89

INMD 72.58

PLBY 29.36

SEAS 66.85

SI        164.32

SITM 296.18

SKIN 23.84

TDC 44.21

ZIM        54.79

SPY 476.04

QQQ 402.88

Saturday, December 18, 2021

RISKY BETS - TIER 4 PORTFOLIO UPDATE

Removed SAM to Tier 1 - Top 50 stock from current portfolio. 

Removed following stocks and moved them to "Trend - Tier 2" portfolio. 

  • CHGG
  • ERJ
  • SAGE
  • SRPT
  • VIR
  • MRNA
  • RKT
Removed following stocks and moved them to "Favorite Stocks - Tier 3" portfolio. 

  • CELH
  • CCL
  • DAL
  • VIAC
Updated Risky Bets Tier 4 Portfolio with following allocation: 

Following 14 stocks with 3% Allocation: 
  • APPS
  • BEAM
  • BMBL
  • DISCA
  • EXAS
  • FOUR
  • FSLY
  • JAZZ
  • PENN
  • RDFN
  • REGI
  • SABR
  • WYNN
  • ZNGA
Following 18 stocks with 2% Allocation: 
  • AFRM
  • BBY
  • CRM
  • ESTC
  • ETSY
  • FB
  • FTCH
  • HUBS
  • HUT
  • MNDY
  • MTTR
  • NTES
  • PLBY
  • PUBM
  • SHOP
  • SIVB
  • ZI
  • ZIP
Following 22 stocks with 1% Allocation: 
  • AI
  • BYND
  • CGC
  • DDD
  • DOCU
  • FVRR
  • GDRX
  • IRBT
  • JOBY
  • LMND
  • LZ
  • MGNI
  • MS
  • PAGS
  • PLUG
  • PSTG
  • SAVA
  • SPCE
  • VRM
  • XPEV
  • YNDX
  • YOU
Following 28 stocks are completely removed from all lists. 

  • CHPT
  • CHWY
  • CSIQ
  • EDIT
  • EXPI
  • FCEL
  • FROG
  • FUTU
  • LAZR
  • LILM
  • LSPD
  • MARA
  • MQ
  • MSTR
  • PACB
  • PATH
  • QS
  • RUN
  • SAVA
  • SFIX
  • SHAK
  • SKLZ
  • SNAP
  • SOFI
  • TOST
  • UPWK
  • WISH
  • ZM








UPDATED FAVORITE STOCK PORTFOLIO - TIER 3

 Removed Z (Zillow) and ROKU from favorite stocks to move them to Tier 1 - Top 50 Stocks. 

Updated Favorite list of stocks portfolio with following allocation: 

Following 11 stocks with 3% Allocation: 

  • ATVI
  • BABA
  • CELH
  • DBX
  • DFS
  • DPZ
  • HON
  • JCI
  • PTON
  • SPOT
  • TWLO
Following 23 stocks with 2% Allocation: 

  • ABNB
  • AMD
  • BA
  • BILL
  • CVNA
  • CYBR
  • DKNG
  • DKS
  • ENPH
  • HOOD
  • LULU
  • LYFT
  • MDB
  • MTCH
  • NFLX
  • NIO
  • NVDA
  • PINS
  • TDOC
  • TWTR
  • UBER
  • UPST
  • ZIM
Following 21 stocks with 1% Allocation: 
  • ALLY
  • BMY
  • CCL
  • DAL
  • DXCM
  • JD
  • MELI
  • PLTR
  • PYPL
  • RH
  • SE
  • SGEN
  • SQ
  • TGT
  • TTD
  • U
  • URI
  • VIAC
  • WAL
  • WM
  • ZS



UPDATED TREND PORTFOLIO (TIER 2)

Removed Stocks from Trend Portfolio are: 

  • AFRM
  • BBY
  • ETSY
  • FTCH
  • HUBS
  • MNDY
  • NTES
  • SHOP
  • SIVB
  • ZI
  • CRM
  • ESTC
  • HUT
  • MTTR
  • PLBY
  • PUBM
  • ZIP

Updated portfolio allocation for Trend Portfolio is: 

(Following 40 stocks with 2% Allocation):
  • AMBA
  • ARE
  • ATKR
  • AVTR
  • BBWI
  • BJ
  • BKNG
  • CHGG
  • CNC
  • CPRI
  • CVS
  • EL
  • ERJ
  • FBHS
  • FTNT
  • IBM
  • IQV
  • KR
  • LITE
  • MKC
  • MRNA
  • MRVI
  • MRVL
  • NKE
  • NOW
  • ON
  • PANW
  • POOL
  • QGEN
  • RACE
  • RKT
  • SAGE
  • SRPT
  • TJX
  • TMO
  • VIR
  • VRTX
  • YUM
  • ZBRA
  • ZION

(Following 20 stocks with 1% Allocation):

  • ASAN
  • BOOT
  • COIN
  • COMM
  • CROX
  • CRWD
  • DASH
  • DDOG
  • DNUT
  • HIMX
  • INMD
  • NAVI
  • NET
  • RBLX
  • S
  • SEDG
  • SMAR
  • SNOW
  • TSLA
  • XLNX

TOP 50 STOCKS CHANGES

 It has been one month since I picked top 50 stocks and result is not as good as expected. There are more than 22 stocks which saw more than 10% correction and they need to be replaced with other better stocks. 

So, the stocks which are getting dropped from Top 50 are: 

  1. ABNB
  2. AMD
  3. BA
  4. BILL
  5. CYBR
  6. DKS
  7. DXCM
  8. ENPH
  9. JD
  10. LULU
  11. MDB
  12. NFLX
  13. NVDA
  14. RH
  15. SE
  16. SGEN
  17. TTD
  18. U
  19. URI
  20. WAL
  21. ZIM
  22. ZS
Most of them are moved to either Tier 3 (which is collection of my favorite stocks) and rest to Tier 4 (Risky list). All are great companies and good stocks, just not in trend anymore and usually when stock is corrected over 10%, it continue to see more correction, so better to be cautious. At the same time, its better to reward companies which are outperforming since last one month. So newest additions are: 

  1. AAPL
  2. AMGN
  3. ANET
  4. AVGO
  5. DLTR
  6. EMN
  7. FDX
  8. GD
  9. HPQ
  10. INTU
  11. PEP
  12. ROKU
  13. SAM
  14. SHW
  15. STZ
  16. TECK
  17. TNDM
  18. UI
  19. ULTA
  20. V
  21. Z
  22. ZTS
Many of these stocks were already part of my Tier 2, Tier 3 and Tier 4 list. ANET, TECK, TNDM, ZTS, SHW, STZ, UI were part of Tier 2 group, ROKU and Z were in my favorite list of Tier 3 and SAM was part of Tier 4. Some of them are sort of direct replacement, such as TNDM outperforming DXCM and General Dynamics outperforming BA in Aerospace. Apple, AMGN were part of dividend portfolio and performing better. 

Friday, December 17, 2021

My thoughts on crypto

I always believed - and still do - that 5% of your total worth has to be invested in GOLD. When crypto was introduced (not back in 2008, but sometime in 2017-2018) to mainstream media and each household as the topic of discussion - I believed - we should at least nibble with 1% of total worth in it. That 1% was taken away from GOLD allocation and it was insignificant to your overall worth but good enough allocation to a new asset class to begin with. 

When Bitcoin was flying each day from 10,000$ to 18,000$ - it did felt amazing, but when it tanked from 18000$ to 3,000$ it felt miserable. But losing 70% from 1% of your worth did not created a dent. Good time to pick it back up was when it crossed the milestone of 10,000$. I did mention it to our advanced trading group in Whatsapp that's the time to get back in. It was worth it to see it fly from 10,000$ to 60,000$. 

Bitcoin consolidated a bit and was unable to form higher highs and I got out and sold all my crypto allocation when it was 56000$. It felt bad initially - as I saw Bitcoin went to 62000$ after I sold it, and based on chart analysis - I said to myself - if it crosses 66000$ - I must get back in. Fortunately it didn't and then it was a falling knife until it hit 30,000$. 

Another area which might have been a great entry to see it get back to 60,000$. I traded a bit from 30K to 34K, 38K to 44K, 50K to 54K but those were all small trades and I was taking profit for 10-20-30% gains. Today, as of now, I do not own any Bitcoin or any other crypto and hesitant to do so as Fed is tapering. It would be difficult for crypto to find new money going forward. However, there is a general consensus that Bitcoin will see 100,000$ mark in near future. 

I may trade Bitcoin if it crosses 66000$ in near future as next step would be 78000$ but apart from that I would be hesitant to invest in Crypto at this point. Its about "Risk-Reward" and although there is a chance that Bitcoin can go from 47K to 100K (that's just 100% return). However, Bitcoin becomes interesting to me if it goes near 20K (because then from 20K to 100K would be 500% return and that would be worth the risk). I may not go all in at 20K but I would certainly initiate a position at 20K and continue to dollar cost average until it hit 10K and by 10K - I would have my full position (the one that I sold when it was at 56000) with Stop Loss of 7,500$. If Bitcoin goes below 7,500$ that would be bye bye moment. 


Sunday, December 5, 2021

Stock Market Weekly Review (Nov 29-Dec 03 2021)

 


Small cap's IWM got destroyed two consecutive week's now - tanking 4% last week and 5% this week. New Covid variant is why re-opening economy stocks are getting sold off, Fed Tapering is the second reason why many growth stocks are tanking and De-listing of Chinese stocks from US Market is causing Chinese names are getting sell off. 

Some of the notable movers on the down side are: 

Fed Tapering Growth Names Plunge: NFLX, CRM (-9%), FB, ADBE (7%), TSLA (6%), DOCU (-45%), ASAN (-36%), ESTC (-26%), HOOD - AFRM - DKNG - BILL - ETSY - NET - TOST - QS - S (-20%), 

MQ, MNDY, ZI, U, UPST, PLUG, SOFI, ZM, MELI, PINS, DASH, TDOC (-15-20%), CRWD, W, SE, VEEV, ROKU, MDB, COIN, ENPH, DXCM, UBER, SGEN, PATH (-10-15%)

Other Notable sellers are: YOU, SKIN, INMD, AI, SI, LAZR etc (more than 15% sell off). 

Chinese Tickers due to delisting: BABA (-16%), PDD, BILI, NIO (-20%), TME, XPEV (-15%), JD (-12%) , IQ (-27%) FUTU (-20%) etc. 

Few Names that ended the week on positive are: ABT, AAPL (3%), certain chip names such as AMBA, MRVL, ON, NXPI, MCHP as well as Z (due to Buy back news), HPQ (good ER) and SHW (at all time high), and some biotech names such as (VIR, ADGI). 

Next Week - watch out for re-opening the economy stocks rebound as new variant does not seems to be that deadly.