Monday, February 3, 2014

Third Front lead by Jaya - Viable option

BJP and Narendra Modi are the leading candidates to get maximum share of votes and seats in the upcoming Loksabha election. Anything less than 200 seats will be considered as failure for NDA, which is composing of only 3 major parties: BJP, Shivsena and Shiromani Akali Dal. However 200 seats is not equal to 272 and they would need helping hand.

Congress are surely going to loose in the upcoming election, question is how much? Most likely, considering congress is spanned across India, they will be getting close to 100 seats. (Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, UP, Kerala, Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh, Assam, many eastern states etc)

AAP is continue to disappoint their fans and followers with their constant tantrums on television. They may be able to get few seats up in North but they will highly unlikely to be a major force to fear about.

In this scenario, a possible collaboration of Third Front could be a big blow. Nitish Kumar, Lefties, Jayalalitha, Sharad Pawar, Naydu from AP, Biju Janta Dal, Samajwadi Party, Mamta Banerjee perhaps and Dev Gauda's Janta Dal from Karnataka; all can unite together with the outside support from congress could be a possibility for the next govt. However it all depends upon which party is going to get how many seats. For third front to form the govt, they need minimum of 150+ seats together.

TDP can get 15-20 seats from Andhra Pradesh.
JD(U) from Bihar can get 15-20 seats.
JD(S) from Karnataka can get 5-10 seats.
NCP from Maharashtra can get 10-15 seats.
BJD from Orissa can get 15 seats.
AAIDMK (Jayalalitha) can get 25 seats from Tamilnadu.
Samajwadi Party or BSP can get 25-30 seats from UP.
Left can get 30+ seats from Kerala and West Bengal.
AAP might be ready to get 15+ seats from Haryana, Punjab and Delhi and may support them outside, just to keep BJP out. (Also read BJP's Road to 200)

Basically, if everything pans out correctly, they may be able to get 172+ seats  and if congress can support them from outside, they are in with a chance to form the govt. Jayalalitha with maximum seats may demand to be the prime minister and it can become a possibility. Jayalalitha will also be the key because if she is denied PM position, she might as well support BJP and get the required portfolio's. Sonia Gandhi, Mayawati, Mamta might support the decision and Rahul Gandhi's keyword "Women Empowerment" might actually become reality.

There are too many if's and but's but Third front could be a viable option.