Relief Rally

If you look at YearoverYear inflation data, then we have a Down Trend from June.

9.05% in June, 8.52% in July, 8.26% in August, 8.19% in Sep and 7.74% in Oct. 4 months in a row, inflation % has went down.

If you look at MonthoverMonth data: Inflation was down from June high to July and August, but in Sep it rise 0.21% and Oct it rise 0.40%, so people can pick the data based on their bias. This seems like a relief rally, Fed will still raise rate in December (25, 50 or 75) to be decided based on other data.
Indexes are going to remain range bound, but individual stocks (based on the latest earnings they have posted), will outperform. We are still in the bear market.

FED RATE HIKE/CUT MOVEMENT EXPECTATION

Fed Movement Expectation: IMHO

• Raise rate 75 basis point in Nov 22 (from 3.00 to 3.75). 
• Raise rate 50 basis point in Dec 22 (from 3.75 to 4.25).
• Raise rate 25 basis point in Feb 23 (from 4.25 to 4.50). 

Complete QT by June 2023. 

• Cut rate of 25 basis point in Sep 23 (rate from 4.50 to 4.25)
• Cut rate of 25 basis point in Nov 23 (rate from 4.25 to 4.00)

This is inline with Jackson Hole comment that rates are going to be 4% by end of 2023. 

Random Thought

The most difficult task to master is "Unlearning what you have learned". It will take years, if not months, when people realize, "Tech Trade" is gone and "Value is here to stay"...Smart money that has moved to "Energy, Financials, Pharma, Health Insurance, Utility, Other Insurance companies (such as Progressive) etc" is not going to come out , Sure some "Tech" will work - but new decade will have new leaders. Good to "Trade" some of these tech stocks, but it might be years, before they go back to their Glory days - some may not even make it...It is a hard task to master to differentiate between , "TRADING" vs "INVESTING" mentality...