Sep 20 Trades and Thoughts

Important day tomorrow as Fed rate hike and commentary will dictate the next turn for market. Market will be expecting 75 basis point hike and Fed to acknowledge that economy is showing signs of weakness. If they continue to stand hawkish and remain on "Auto-Pilot" no matter what until inflation gets under control, than market may see another 10-15% correction. Sentiment though is overly negative and usually when retail and many big players have put in bearish bets - market does exactly opposite. So, "Expect the UnExpected". 

I would be keeping an eye on 2 year bond yield. It is fast approaching 4% and suddenly becomes attractive choice with market correcting on almost weekly basis. 4% return in current environment may be very attractive for bond buyers and if bond buyers buy 2 year bonds then yield may come down a bit. It will also indicate that Fed may raise rate and go above 4% but they will not Hold that rate for long time. Current consensus is that they will hold rate at 4% for 11 months - that time seems too high - in my opinion and that will not only bring severe recession but also stagflation. Economy may not be able to allow Fed to keep rate at 4%. First casualty may be housing market and second job market and Fed may Pivot midway or within 3 months or so after reaching 4% interest rate. 

Today's Trades: 

Bank of America: 

1. Sold SEP 23 QQQ 280 put (for no gain, no loss)

TD AmeriTrade:

1. Sold ZS Weekly 175 Yolo for 370$ (100$ Profit)
2. Sold SEP 23 SPY 380 Puts for 780$ (200$ Profit)
3. Sold QQQ SEP 30 270 Puts for 310$ (small profit)
4. Averaged TLT DEC 115 Call for 135$
5. Averaged TNDM Stocks (added to a minor initial position)
6. Bought LYFT JAN 2023 20 Call for 194$
7. Bought COST OCT 400 Put for 159$ (when it broke support around 497 area)
8. Bought LTHM DEC 37.5 Call for 320$
9. Sold MU Oct 60 calls for 100$ loss
10. Bought MJ (Weed index) JAN 2025 6 call for 160$ (wanted to sell stocks to book the massive loss of 40%, but wanted a long time exposure so bought the LEAP)
11. Bought OPEN JAN 2025 5 call for 170$ (same reason as above)

E-Trade: 

1. Sold MJ and OPEN 100 stocks (bought LEAP Calls instead in TD AmeriTrade and created more margin balance for other opportunities - if the sell off comes)