Perhaps this is going to be the Match of the Tournament. There is a enormous amount of expectation from both sides. It is a war like atmosphere at Ahmadabad between two gigantic giants. Every war has series of mini-battles. In order to win the war, you have to win maximum of those battles OR win the key battle which can turn the game on your side.
There are number of great players in both sides for whom this may turn out to be the last match of their career. Two big ones are Ricky Ponting and Sachin Tendulkar. Couple of years back, Ricky Ponting was breathing on the neck of Sachin Tendulkar, at least in Test Matches. However last 2 years we had seen one giant’s graphical display going down while the other one is breaking all records known to human kind.
World Cup however is a different ball game specially knockout games. If the comparison is made between Ponting and Tendulkar in terms of World Cup Knockout games, Ponting comes out as a winner. Champion Tendulkar is desparate to put a side the last two games he played against Australia in World Cup and revenge is definitely on to prove that he is better than Ponting in every aspect of the game, be there be a World Cup game or not.
Ponting vs Tendulkar is a majot battle that could seriously put the momentum in either side. If Tendulkar edges to Brett Lee in first 5 overs and get out, that’s a going to be a game changing moment. Amount of confidence that Australians can get out of that wicket is as good as winning a Country in a war. Ponting’s wicket may not be as crucial in terms of game because he is so much out of form and team revolves much around Watson and Hussey to perform with the bat but the ROAR that it can get from the stadium once the captain of the ship gets out could be very motivating factor.
India’s best chance of winning the World Cup game is the amount of wickets they keep in their hand till 35th over. If India is batting first, they might cut down 50 overs game into 5 pieces and achieve smaller targets.
10 overs 50 runs for 0 wickets OR 10 overs 60 runs for 1 wicket OR 10 overs 70 runs for 2 Wickets are good scores for India.
20 overs 100 runs for 1 wicket OR 20 Overs 120 runs for 2/3 wickets are good score for India.
30 Overs 150 runs for 2 wickets OR 30 Overs 160 runs for 3/4 wickets are good score for India.
40 Overs 220 runs for 4 wickets OR 40 Overs 230 runs for 5 wickets are good score for India.
Crucial phase of game for India will be the last 10 overs. How well India is performing in last 10 overs either bowling or batting is going to decide the game. 10 overs 80 runs scoring while they bat could be match winning but 10 overs 80 runs give away could be loosing momentum.
India’s chances of victory decrease if they are chasing a target of 300. India is always known for batting first and setting the target. It helps India because then in 2nd inning, its 11 vs 2 phenomenon which comes into play. Batting first phenomenon also helps in case there is a chain of wickets fell down in first 10 or 20 overs. For recovery purpose it helps if you are setting the target instead of chasing. Even if you are chasing a small target, pressure of getting runs in 2nd inning is much larger.
There isn’t going to be much to offer from Ahmadabad Pitch. Its going to have no grass, It might not crack for 100 over game, specially no game has played in last couple of weeks. It’s probably not going to offer any wind or breeze help either for bowlers. Its going to sunny and hot weather in Ahmadabad and hence it will be perfect condition to bat first if you win the Toss.
If the game is starting as 50-50 chance for both teams, Toss is so crucial that whoever wins the toss, straightaway that team has at least increased their chance of winning the game by 10%.
If India win the toss and India has not lost a wicket in first10 overs then India increased their chances by another 10%. So, Game could be 70% in India’s hand and all they have to do is not to mess it up in last 10 overs like they did against S.Africa by loosing 9 wickets for 29 runs. If India put up the total in access of 300 batting first, India’s chance of winning the game is at least 85%.
If Australia is chasing a target of fewer than 250; they should be able to do it comfortably. Australia like India is also playing with 7 batsman and unlike India they have better and reliable tail Enders. Mitchel Johnson, Jason Kretza and Brett Lee all can bat a bit. In terms of batting; Australia rely heavily on Shane Watson. If Zaheer can get Watson out in first 10 overs (and Australia is chasing over 250 runs); that’s a major drift towards India. Best way to get Watson out is LBW. Get 4 balls going away from him and bring one back into his pads and hope that he tries to whack it over mid-wicket and misses it. The Moment Ponting comes in, play a mind game and get Harbhajan on. Best way to get likes of Ponting and Tendulkar out is early. Once they get 20 odd runs in their pocket, they are hard to remove.
Yuvraj singh is India’s second best bowler after Zaheer Khan. He is not only just any 5th bowler for India , but the bowler who can get wickets for India. He has improved drastically in bowling and is a major wicket taking threat. Specially, White/Clarke/Smith might not be comfortable against Yuvraj.
It will be highly unlikely that even if Australia bats first, they will get out under 250 runs. Pakistan did bowled them out under 200 but Pakistan has better bowlers compare to India. If Australia is batting first and they are putting over 250 runs, with the bowling line up of Lee, Tait, Johnson, Watson, Kretza its going to be as good as climbing mountain.
Tait can be a match winner but if he continue to ball down the leg side, Tendulkar/Sehwag/Gambhir is going to milk him for runs. Lee can be destructive but hittable. Johnson according to me is going to be a wicket taking option from Australia.
My Prediction depends a lot upon who is going to bat first. If India is batting first, my pick for the game is India. If Australia is batting first they are my pick. So My Pick is the coin of the Toss, Its almost whoever wins it, wins the game.
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