FEB 18 UPDATE ON M1 FINANCE PORTFOLIOS

Summary of the results based on time frame from Jan 21-2022 to Feb 18 2022: 

Top 10 Picks gained 4.30% compare to SPY performance of negative 0.85%.

Big winners were: ABNB, BKNG, LYFT and ZIM. 

Top 50 stocks picked gained 2.67%. Big winners were: ABNB, AXP, BKNG, CCL, CF, DAL, DISCA, EXPE, H, LYFT, ZIM and ZION. 

Trend portfolio was up 3.94%. Big Winners were: ADM, ALK, DWAC, FOX, GOLD, MOS, PII, SABR and SLB. 

Both Favorites and Risky portfolio's were marginally down- however outperforming SPY. 

Following are some of the updates in all four portfolio's for next one month (till March 18, 2022):

Top 50 Stocks: 

1. AAPL
2. ABNB
3. ALK
4. AMZN
5. ANET
6. AVGO
7. BIDU
8. BILL
9. BJ
10. BLDR
11. BMY
12. BYD
13. CF
14. CHKP
15. COMM
16. CPB
17. CPE
18. CPRI
19. DELL
20. DFS
21. DIS
22. DISCA
23. DLTR
24. EMN
25. GD
26. HLT
27. KHC
28. LNC
29. LYFT
30. MOH
31. MOS
32. NLOK
33. NTAP
34. NVDA
35. NWL
36. ON
37. ORLY
38. PENN
39. PII
40. SIVB
41. SIX
42. SKX
43. SLB
44. STX
45. TAK
46. TECK
47. TMUS
48. UPS
49. WWD
50. ZEN

Trend Portfolio Update:

1. ABBV
2. ABC
3. ADM
4. ALLY
5. AMBA
6. ASAN
7. ATKR
8. AXP
9. BDX
10. BEAM
11. BG
12. CCL
13. CHPT
14. CNC
15. CNXC
16. COF
17. CTXS
18. DDOG
19. EXPE
20. FANG
21. FTNT
22. GLW
23. H
24. HIMX
25. HSIC
26. HWM
27. JNPR
28. LDOS
29. LITE
30. LMT
31. LYV
32. LZ
33. MPWR
34. NBR
35. PACB
36. PCAR
37. PKI
38. PLUG
39. PSTG
40. QGEN
41. RF
42. SKY
43. SNAP
44. PFGC
45. TTD
46. ULTA
47. UPST
48. ZI
49. ZIM
50. ZION

Favorites Stock Portfolio Updated: 

1. BA
2. BABA
3. BBBY
4. BC
5. BMBL
6. BURL
7. C
8. CELH
9. CFG
10. CGC
11. COST
12. CYBR
13. DASH
14. DKNG
15. DLO
16. DOCS
17. DWAC
18. ENPH
19. FBHS
20. FND
21. FOUR
22. GOLD
23. HUBS
24. HZNP
25. MAR
26. MU
27. NFLX
28. NKE
29. PATH
30. PLAY
31. PTON
32. PYPL
33. RH
34. SABR
35. SEAS
36. SPCE
37. SQ
38. SRPT
39. TDC
40. TDOC
41. TPR
42. TSCO
43. TSLA
44. UBER
45. V
46. VIRT
47. WYNN
48. YNDX
49. YOU
50. Z

Lastly, 100 stocks in the Risky Portfolio are: 

1. ABT
2. AMD
3. AMGN
4. APPS
5. BAC
6. BBY
7. BKNG
8. BUD
9. CHD
10. CHGG
11. CHWY
12. CMG
13. CROX
14. CRWD
15. CSIQ
16. CVNA
17. CVS
18. DAL
19. DBX
20. DDD
21. DKS
22. DOW
23. DOX
24. DPZ
25. DXCM
26. EA
27. ERJ
28. EXAS
29. EXPI
30. FCEL
31. FDX
32. FOX
33. FUTU
34. GDRX
35. GRFS
36. GRMN
37. HON
38. HOOD
39. HPQ
40. HUT
41. IAC
42. IBM
43. INTC
44. IRBT
45. JAZZ
46. JD
47. JOBY
48. KR
49. LAZR
50. LHX
51. LPL
52. LRCX
53. LULU
54. LYB
55. MARA
56. MDB
57. MELI
58. MGA
59. MIDD
60. MKC
61. MRVI
62. MS
63. MSTR
64. MTCH
65. NET
66. NIO
67. NOW
68. NTES
69. PANW
70. PEP
71. PINS
72. PLTR
73. PUBM
74. PVH
75. QS
76. REGN
77. SAVA
78. SBUX
79. SE
80. SEDG
81. SHAK
82. SNOW
83. SPLK
84. SPOT
85. STZ
86. TAP
87. TGT
88. TTWO
89. TV
90. TWLO
91. TWTR
92. URI
93. VIAC
94. VMW
95. VRTX
96. WAL
97. WEX
98. XPEV
99. YUM
100. ZS

IPL 2022 Post Auction Thoughts

IPL 2022 Auction: 

Top 4: Mumbai, Delhi, Lucknow, Rajasthan:

Just missed: Kolkata, Chennai

Bottom 4: Bangalore, Punjab, Hyderabad, Gujarat. 

1) Mumbai: 

Likely XI: Rohit Sharma, Ishan Kishan, Surya Kumar Yadav, Dewlap Brevis, K.Pollard, T.David/D.Sams, J.Archer, M.Ashwin, J.Bumrah, B.Thampi, J.Unadkat

Reserved: T.Mills, F.Allen, 

Pros: Top 5 match winners with the bat, Lethal fast bowler combination at the top. 

Cons: Lack of bowling depth and variety.

2) Delhi: 

Likely XI: D.Warner, P.Shaw, M.Marsh, Mandeep Singh, R.Pant, K.Nagarkoti, Shardul Thakur, Axar Patel, A.Nortje, Mustafizur Rahman, Kuldeep Yadav. 

Reserved: C.Sakariya, K.S.Bharat, L.Ngidi, Sarfaraz Khan, R.Powell, Khaleel Ahmed. 

Pros: Excellent opening pair, great finisher, batting depth, match winners with the ball.

Cons: Reliable middle order batsman, lack of wicket taking bowler at the top. 

3) Lucknow: 

Likely XI: Quinton de Kock, K.L.Rahul, Manish Pandey, D.Hooda, M.Stoinis, J.Holder, Krunal Pandya, K.Gowtham, R.Bishnoi, Mark Wood, Avesh Khan.

Reserved: S.Nadeem, E.Lewis, D.Chameera.

Pros: Match winners at the top and experienced finishers. 

Cons: Depth Bowling

4) Rajasthan: 

Likely XI: Devdutt Padikkal, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Sanju Samson, Jos Buttler, S.Hetmyer, R.Parag, J.Neesham, R.Ashwin, T.Boult, Y.Chahal, Prasidh Krishna

Reserved: N.Coulter-Nile, R.Van Der Dussen, Karun Nair, N.Saini. 

Pros: Exciting young top batting order, Match winners with the ball (spin and pace)

Cons: Experienced finisher in both bat and bowl.

5) Kolkata: 

Likely XI: A.Rahane, A.Hales/S.Billings, N.Rana, S.Iyer, V.Iyer, A.Russell, P.Cummins, S.Narine, S.Mavi, U.Yadav, V.Chakravarthy.

Reserved: T.Southee, M.Nabi, 

Pro: Excellent bowling depth, Great late middle order batting. 

Cons: Lack of match winners on the top order batting line up.

6) Chennai: 

Likely XI: R.Gaikwad, R.Uthappa, Moeen Ali, A.Rayudu, MS Dhoni, S.Dube, R.Jadeja, D.Bravo, C.Jordan, D.Chahar, A.Milne

Reserved: M.Santner, 

Pros: Batting Depth & experienced leadership. 

Cons: Lack of winners in the top order batting line up and spin threat. 

7) Bangalore: 

Likely XI: Virat Kohli, Fat Du Plussis, G.Maxwell, D.Karthik, W.Hasaranga, H.Patel, Karn Sharma, S.Ahmed, J.Hazelwood, M.Siraj, S.Kaul. 

Reserved: J.Behrendorff, S.Rutherford, F.Allen

Pro: Great top order batting line up 

Cons: No Match winner in bowling department. 

8) Punjab: 

Likely XI: Shikhar Dhawan, Mayank Agarwal, J.Bairstow, Shahrukh Khan, Odean Smith, Liam Livingstone, H.Brar, K.Rabada, R.Chahar, Arshdeep Singh, Sandeep Sharma. 

Pros: Excellent Top 3 batsman, collection of above average decent talent. 

Cons: Lack of star power. 

9) Hyderabad: 

Likely XI: A.Markram, R.Tripathi, K.Williamson, N.Pooran, A.Samad, W.Sundar, M.Jansen, A.Sharma, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Umran Malik, T.Natarajan.

Reserved: K.Tyagi, S.Gopal, S.Abbott, R.Shepherd.

Pros: Excellent middle order, Great Pace Attack.

Cons: Star Power at the top, lack of variety in bowling department.

10) Gujarat: 

Likely XI: Shubman Gill, Jason Roy, W.Saha, D.Miller, Hardik Pandya, R.Tewatia, J.Yadav, Rashid Khan, Lockie Ferguson, Mohd Shami, Varun Aaron.

Reserved: Y.Dayal, M.Wade, V.Shankar, Gurjeerat Mann, A.Joseph

Pros: Decent batting line up and match winners with the ball. 

Cons: Lack of experienced leadership.

Ideal allocation of money

 This is not a financial advice, however based on my experience - if given a choice, I would like to breakdown total worth of money in the following high level six categories. 

1. 25% in Real Estate (including the house you stay)
2. 20% in Retirement Funds (401K, IRA etc)
3. 20% in Stocks
4. 20% in Cash Flow Business
5. 10% in Cash
6. 5% in Commodities

Real Estate - has the slowest rate of return (in developed countries), but also one of the most stable and risk free asset class. Hence the maximum allocation, but it grows painfully slowly and it is hard to sell in the time of need - or it takes time to sell so should limit it to 25%. 

People spend on an average more than half of their saved money in their last 10-15 years due to deteriorating health condition. Hence - its best to give second best allocation to retirement funds. As you age, it is also hard to find work or produce money. Plus these money has advantage on tax, so 20% allocation in 401K, IRA etc makes total sense. 

You should always have 6 to 12 month of your expenses saved in hard cash. Yes, you can use credit card etc if you need the money when you lose job, but it comes with the price of interest and hence saved money in the time of need is very much a necessity. After you saved 12 month of expense in cash - you can start putting that cash in some reliable source of safety, such as fixed deposits in bank (as good as cash), savings account or bonds or Dividend Paying stocks (which does not move a lot but gives 8 to 10% Dividend on monthly basis such as QYLD, RYLD (subject to market risk). 

5% in Commodities to cover up the inflation over the period of time. Before Crypto currency, most of these were Gold and Silver money, but now a days, it is best to allocate 1 to 3% of commodity allocation in either BitCoin or Ethereum. 

All of above methods would give roughly 5 to 10% return over the period of time. It is best to generate additional income through investing in cash flow generating businesses. Often - initially it is best to partner with like minded friends or relatives which gives 15-20% Return. 

Lastly, the riskiest asset class - Stock Market. There is no other asset class which will give you the craziest sounding returns like stock market. 10,000$ invested in Amazon or Netflix over the period of 30 years, would give you 20+ Million dollars. However it is hard to find great stocks out of 8000+ and it is also hard to keep them for longer duration. Imagine investing 10,000$ in Amazon and not selling it when it reached 1 million dollar. Also at times it is frustrating - Imagine investing in Apple company from 1982 and waiting for 20 years and wake up in 2002 to see you have lost 1000$ out of 10,000$ and if you sell it, only to see in next 20 years, that same 10,000$ giving 10 million dollars. So, there are countless such examples - but if you get it right, no other asset class will reward you like stock market. Your first 10,000$ though - best to invest it in exchange traded funds like SPY or QQQ and later on once you have spend enough time and acquired enough knowledge about the various businesses - buy the individual stocks. "Invest in you" is often the most rewarding strategy such as if you are shopping in COSTCO or buying Nike Shoes or purchasing Apple phone etc- so invest in the companies whose products or services you are familiar with and use it on daily or monthly or yearly basis. 

UPDATED TIER 4 RISK HIGH GROWTH PORTFOLIO

 

UPDATED FAVORITES STOCK PORTFOLIO TIER 3

Following list of 50 stocks are my favorite stocks in the market (but they are not outperforming and hence not part of Top 50 and they are also not in the Trend. However, these are some of the best companies for long term outlook.

1. AAPL
2. ABT
3. AMD
4. AMZN
5. BILL
6. BLDR
7. CELH
8. CMG
9. COST
10. CROX
11. CRWD
12. CVNA
13. CYBR
14. DASH
15. DDOG
16. DIS
17. DKNG
18. DPZ
19. DXCM
20. ENPH
21. FND
22. GRMN
23. HOOD
24. LRCX
25. LULU
26. MDB
27. MELI
28. MTCH
29. NET
30. NFLX
31. NIO
32. NVDA
33. PINS
34. PLTR
35. PYPL
36. RH
37. SBUX
38. SE
39. SPOT
40. SQ
41. TDOC
42. TMUS
43. TTD
44. TTWO
45. TWLO
46. TWTR
47. UBER
48. UPST
49. Z
50. ZS

UPDATED TREND PORTFOLIO (TIER 2)

My favorite set up's are highlighted in Bold. 

1. ABBV
2. ADM
3. ALK
4. BDX
5. BG
6. BIDU
7. BUD
8. C
9. CFG
10. CHD
11. CHKP
12. COF
13. CPE
14. CTXS
15. DBX
16. DOW
17. DOX
18. DWAC
19. EA
20. FOX
21. GOLD
22. GRFS
23. IAC
24. IBM
25. INTC
26. JNPR
27. KDP
28. LDOS
29. LMT
30. LNC
31. LPL
32. LYB
33. MGA
34. MOS
35. NLOK
36. NTES
37. PCAR
38. PII
39. PVH
40. REGN
41. RF
42. SABR
43. SLB
44. SPLK
45. TAK
46. TAP
47. TV
48. VMW
49. WEX
50. WWD

TOP 50 STOCKS JAN 21 - FEB 18 2022

For next one month (from Jan Expiry to Feb options expiry) following are my top 50 stocks pick. All of them have performed slightly better than SPY (some of them up more than 5%, 10%, 20%) etc. There were 5 other in the list, but unfortunately, they were cut from Top 50: Capital One (COF), IBM, DBX (Dropbox), Sabr (SABR), NTES. 

Top 50 Stocks List: 

1. ABNB
2. ALLY
3. AMGN
4. AXP
5. BA
6. BABA
7. BAC
8. BBY
9. BKNG
10. BMY
11. CCL
12. CF
13. CVS
14. DAL
15. DFS
16. DISCA
17. DKS
18. EMN
19. ERJ
20. EXPE
21. FDX
22. FUTU
23. GD
24. H
25. HLT
26. HON
27. HPQ
28. IRBT
29. JAZZ
30. JD
31. KR
32. LHX
33. LYFT
34. LYV
35. MIDD
36. MKC
37. MS
38. PEP
39. STZ
40. TECK
41. TGT
42. TSLA
43. V
44. VIAC
45. VRTX
46. WAL
47. WYNN
48. XPEV
49. ZIM
50. ZION