FED RATE HIKE/CUT MOVEMENT EXPECTATION

Fed Movement Expectation: IMHO

• Raise rate 75 basis point in Nov 22 (from 3.00 to 3.75). 
• Raise rate 50 basis point in Dec 22 (from 3.75 to 4.25).
• Raise rate 25 basis point in Feb 23 (from 4.25 to 4.50). 

Complete QT by June 2023. 

• Cut rate of 25 basis point in Sep 23 (rate from 4.50 to 4.25)
• Cut rate of 25 basis point in Nov 23 (rate from 4.25 to 4.00)

This is inline with Jackson Hole comment that rates are going to be 4% by end of 2023.