Winner is the TOSS of a COIN

Perhaps this is going to be the Match of the Tournament. There is a enormous amount of expectation from both sides. It is a war like atmosphere at Ahmadabad between two gigantic giants. Every war has series of mini-battles. In order to win the war, you have to win maximum of those battles OR win the key battle which can turn the game on your side.
There are number of great players in both sides for whom this may turn out to be the last match of their career. Two big ones are Ricky Ponting and Sachin Tendulkar. Couple of years back, Ricky Ponting was breathing on the neck of Sachin Tendulkar, at least in Test Matches. However last 2 years we had seen one giant’s graphical display going down while the other one is breaking all records known to human kind.

World Cup however is a different ball game specially knockout games. If the comparison is made between Ponting and Tendulkar in terms of World Cup Knockout games, Ponting comes out as a winner. Champion Tendulkar is desparate to put a side the last two games he played against Australia in World Cup and revenge is definitely on to prove that he is better than Ponting in every aspect of the game, be there be a World Cup game or not.

Ponting vs Tendulkar is a majot battle that could seriously put the momentum in either side. If Tendulkar edges to Brett Lee in first 5 overs and get out, that’s a going to be a game changing moment. Amount of confidence that Australians can get out of that wicket is as good as winning a Country in a war. Ponting’s wicket may not be as crucial in terms of game because he is so much out of form and team revolves much around Watson and Hussey to perform with the bat but the ROAR that it can get from the stadium once the captain of the ship gets out could be very motivating factor.

India’s best chance of winning the World Cup game is the amount of wickets they keep in their hand till 35th over. If India is batting first, they might cut down 50 overs game into 5 pieces and achieve smaller targets.

10 overs 50 runs for 0 wickets OR 10 overs 60 runs for 1 wicket OR 10 overs 70 runs for 2 Wickets are good scores for India.
20 overs 100 runs for 1 wicket OR 20 Overs 120 runs for 2/3 wickets are good score for India.
30 Overs 150 runs for 2 wickets OR 30 Overs 160 runs for 3/4 wickets are good score for India.
40 Overs 220 runs for 4 wickets OR 40 Overs 230 runs for 5 wickets are good score for India.

Crucial phase of game for India will be the last 10 overs. How well India is performing in last 10 overs either bowling or batting is going to decide the game. 10 overs 80 runs scoring while they bat could be match winning but 10 overs 80 runs give away could be loosing momentum.

India’s chances of victory decrease if they are chasing a target of 300. India is always known for batting first and setting the target. It helps India because then in 2nd inning, its 11 vs 2 phenomenon which comes into play. Batting first phenomenon also helps in case there is a chain of wickets fell down in first 10 or 20 overs. For recovery purpose it helps if you are setting the target instead of chasing. Even if you are chasing a small target, pressure of getting runs in 2nd inning is much larger.

There isn’t going to be much to offer from Ahmadabad Pitch. Its going to have no grass, It might not crack for 100 over game, specially no game has played in last couple of weeks. It’s probably not going to offer any wind or breeze help either for bowlers. Its going to sunny and hot weather in Ahmadabad and hence it will be perfect condition to bat first if you win the Toss.

If the game is starting as 50-50 chance for both teams, Toss is so crucial that whoever wins the toss, straightaway that team has at least increased their chance of winning the game by 10%.

If India win the toss and India has not lost a wicket in first10 overs then India increased their chances by another 10%. So, Game could be 70% in India’s hand and all they have to do is not to mess it up in last 10 overs like they did against S.Africa by loosing 9 wickets for 29 runs. If India put up the total in access of 300 batting first, India’s chance of winning the game is at least 85%.

If Australia is chasing a target of fewer than 250; they should be able to do it comfortably. Australia like India is also playing with 7 batsman and unlike India they have better and reliable tail Enders. Mitchel Johnson, Jason Kretza and Brett Lee all can bat a bit. In terms of batting; Australia rely heavily on Shane Watson. If Zaheer can get Watson out in first 10 overs (and Australia is chasing over 250 runs); that’s a major drift towards India. Best way to get Watson out is LBW. Get 4 balls going away from him and bring one back into his pads and hope that he tries to whack it over mid-wicket and misses it. The Moment Ponting comes in, play a mind game and get Harbhajan on. Best way to get likes of Ponting and Tendulkar out is early. Once they get 20 odd runs in their pocket, they are hard to remove.

Yuvraj singh is India’s second best bowler after Zaheer Khan. He is not only just any 5th bowler for India , but the bowler who can get wickets for India. He has improved drastically in bowling and is a major wicket taking threat. Specially, White/Clarke/Smith might not be comfortable against Yuvraj.

It will be highly unlikely that even if Australia bats first, they will get out under 250 runs. Pakistan did bowled them out under 200 but Pakistan has better bowlers compare to India. If Australia is batting first and they are putting over 250 runs, with the bowling line up of Lee, Tait, Johnson, Watson, Kretza its going to be as good as climbing mountain.

Tait can be a match winner but if he continue to ball down the leg side, Tendulkar/Sehwag/Gambhir is going to milk him for runs. Lee can be destructive but hittable. Johnson according to me is going to be a wicket taking option from Australia.


My Prediction depends a lot upon who is going to bat first. If India is batting first, my pick for the game is India. If Australia is batting first they are my pick. So My Pick is the coin of the Toss, Its almost whoever wins it, wins the game.

Tendulkar Timing

The moment the name “Tendulkar” pops up; inning of a century at Sharjah images just comes along side. Best player of 1996 World Cup and highest scorer as well was undone by a silly mistake in semi-final. India and world needed that glimpse of a champion to come back and show the World he is a “Winner”. Sharjah back to back knocks were not only special, but extra ordinary because it is a classical example of One man Army taking on mighty Australians.
World was witnessing Tendulkar’s transformation into a winner after that Sharjah knocks but destiny had another option.

Stage was set for that remarkable come back in 1999 World Cup Super Six game against Australia. Both teams needed a win to remain in World Cup. Australia batted first and scored 282 runs. Expectation from Tendulkar to give something special was enormous. He edged and failed.
Stage was again set after four years in 2003 World Cup final. Tendulkar edged and failed again.

Stage was again set to what known as perhaps Tendulkar’s last world cup in 2007. Sri Lanka scored 254 runs and India had to chase and was again expecting Tendulkar to give them a hope and victory. Hope was denied and Tendulkar got out without troubling the scorers.

Everyone wrote Tendulkar out. Inzamam Ul Haq and Brian Lara retired after 2007 World Cup and perhaps critics were expecting Tendulkar to hang his pads in One Day Format. Tendulkar though had a burning desire to win a World Cup.

He geared up for the challenge. He showed in 2008 Commonwealth Bank Series. He scored back to back centuries against Australia in Australia and won the cup for India. He scored 200 runs against South Africa (in India though).

Stage is “again” set for one more remarkable come back from the greatest of great. Will he deliver this time the magic 100th century in a game against three time World Champions Australia and knock them out of the World Cup. Timing of Tendulkar innings are spectacular as always and now time is there for “Tendulkar Timing” to turn things in a Winning way.

Pakistan can cause an Upset

Every time Pakistan plays there is a guaranteed statement which comes out; “Only Pakistan can beat Pakistan”. Its actually quiet true because if Pakistan plays with their given potential and talent, there is no team in the World which can beat them. They showed that against Australia and proved that many times. However, they never play according to the book; they are never boring either.


One of the positive that came out from the group stage from Pakistan’s perspective is Asad Shafiq. Pakistan wanted a strong middle order batsman to give back bone to Younis Khan and Misbah Ul Haq. Their middle order was looking vulnerable as one wicket of either Younis or Misbah could open up the tail.



Game against West Indies in Quarter Final at Mirpur, lot will rely on how Pakistan middle order performs. Both West Indies and Pakistan rely heavily on their bowlers to perform. This quarter final will not see more than 500 runs in a day but there is a good chance, we might see close to 20 wickets fall down in a day. Roach and Benn (west indies is more likely to open bowling with Benn) have given them early wickets. Neither Kamran Akmal nor Mohd.Hafeez looks solid at the crease which means Pakistan middle order will be in within first 15 overs. From 15th Over to 40th Over; Pakistan’s middle order has to play cautiously to win the game for them.



If West Indies can take wickets in the middle order and expose likes of Afridi and Razzaq before 35th over; match will be drift towards West Indies.


On the other side, Pakistan also has bowling line up which can defend target of 200. Umar Gul and Wahab Riaz are attacking bowlers but their spinners and specially Afridi (who is the highest wicket taker in the tournament so far) are their best chance to go through any line up.


West Indies’s best chance to perform better relies on how well, Gayle and Smith performs. If they can actually stay there for first 10 overs or so, rest all pieces of puzzle will fall perfectly for them. Bravo and Sarwan are capable to handle pressure and dig them out but not if they start their inning in first 10 overs. It would be too much to ask from only 2 middle order batsman to play for than 30 overs and West Indies opening partnership is critical.

Neither of the side was picked as one of the favorite to win this tournament (India, S.Africa, Australia and Sri Lanka were favorite to reach to Semi Final). Both this sides are fancy to call themselves as “Underdogs”. They thrive on their ability to cause an upset. Both this team has unique “FLAIR” to offer. Both sides has monster hitters with likes of Gayle, Pollard, Afridi and Razzaq. Both sides are not naturally good fielding side. Both the sides are naturally “Attacking” Side. Both this side however crumbed under pressure, so, the game will be decided between West Indies Opening Pair vs Pakistan’s Middle Order Batsman because rest assured both team’s bowling line up will perform at their best. Gayle/Smith vs Younis/Misbah, the combination which can hold their nerver, will be presented with the Victory.

Pakistan normally are confident side when they enter the ground. We need to see whether victory over Australia gives them more confidence or over confidence.


My Prediction says: Pakistan will cause an upset; by playing rash and give away victory to West Indies.

Pakistan Probable Playing XI:
Kamran Akmal, Mohd.Hafeez, Asad Safiz, Younis Khan, Misbah Ul Haq, Umar Akmal, Shahid Afridi, Abdul Razzaq, Saeed Ajmal, Umar Gul and Wahab Riaz.
(Too many left handed batsman in west indies and hence Saeed Ajmal in place of Abdul Rehman)
(Shoaib Akhtar is probably not fit and lefty Wahab Riaz gives variety in bowling attack).

West Indies Probably Playing XI:
C.Gayle, D.Smith, D.Bravo, R.Sarwan, K.Pollard, Sammy, Brown, Benn, Bishoo, A.Russel, Roach.

Probable Turning Points of the game:
1)Bishoo and Russel taking wickets in the middle overs
2)Gayle/Smith's opening partnership.

Selection Decision

When it comes to selection of choosing the correct XI, you have to look at the opposition team. Australia has only one left handed batsman in their XI: Michael Hussey. It is highly unlikely that Indians go for three off spinners against them.

So, What do Dhoni/Indians do in terms of selection. Hoping that Sehwag will return to open the inning with Sachin Tendulkar, Top 6 (Sehwag, Sachin, Gambhir, Kohli, Yuvraj and Dhoni) gets selected on the basis of their current form.

In bowling department though, there are lots of question marks other than Zaheer Khan.

Raina can safely put himself in number 12 position and rest assured will be used for at least 15 overs in fielding department to cover Sehwag and/or Sachin.

Pathan, Ashwin, Harbhajan, Nehra, Munaf, Sreesanth and Chawla; Seven Stars and 4 Positions. It is very certain that India will at least go for one fast bowler to support Zaheer.

Lets look at PROS & CONS between three seamers.

Nehra:
PROS: Wicket taking option in the middle overs.

He is pretty effective in the depth overs (compare to Munaf and Sreesanth)


CONS: With Zaheer he will be second left arm seamer which gives less variety.

Can go for Plenty of runs and can be wayward under pressure.



Sreesanth


PROS: Better Fielder compare to Munaf and Nehra.

Better Batsman compare to Munaf and Nehra.

Better Wicket Taking Option in first 10 overs


CONS: Bad Temperament.

Can go for plenty of runs at the start and end overs if put under pressure.


Munaf

PROS: Better Line & Length bowler compare to Sreesanth and Nehra

Better economy rate.

Wicket taking option in the depth overs

CONS: Worst fielder/batsman compare to other two.

Least likely to take wickets in first 10 overs puts ressure on Zaheer

Ahemdabad track will not have lot of grass or bounce which means three fast bowlers is highly unlikely scenario. This means, Dhoni will go for 3 spinners out of 4 available (Pathan, Ashwin, Harbhajan, Chawla).

Pathan is most likely to get in the playing XI. Ahmadabad is close to his home town. He is match winner in terms of his batting. He is better fielder among the other 3 spinners. Dhoni likes playing seven batsman and hence he gets in.

2 Spots and 3 Spinners much like , “Aadmi 2 aur goli 3, bahut na insaafi hai re.”

Problem in going with Ashwin and Harbhajan is that, then India will have 3 off spinners against Australians who has only one left handed batsman. That will certainly make India’s bowling one dimensional, no matter how different all three off spinners are.

Problem in going with Chawla is that he is short of confidence plus after both the off spinners performed so well, Ashwin and Harbhajan in last game, who should be left out?

Can Dhoni take a risk of dropping Pathan and go with three front line spinners and 5 front line batsmans, considering that Yuvraj has also found the lost form in last game by scoring a hundred. My recommendation is to go with five bowlers and make a statement. After all, What do seventh batsman can do that six couldn’t? There can be a calculated risk taken and send Harbhajan as a pinch hitter in between Gambhir and Kohli somewhere around 20th over when Kretza and Watson are bowling to nullify the need for Pathan at the depth overs.

We have to wait and see what is the strategy Indian think tank come up in terms of selection of playing XI before the game.

Playing for India or Indians?

Dhoni posted a strong post match comment saying some of the players were playing for crowd (indians) rather than team. Actually, it is quiet true, not just for one player but most players within team. There is hardly anything called "TEAM" when team India plays; Its always individuals. Personal glory and milestones matters more than a team victory. Some fans consider, giving Nehra the final over was a ridiculous decision, I bet Had Dhoni thrown a ball to Bhajji and he would have went for 13 runs, same group of people would have criticized and revesed their statement asking; "Why Bhajji"?

It wasnt the final over where India lost the game. India for more than decades have one major problem, They do not have bowlers who can bowl at the death overs. We dont have it, not even Zaheer Khan is good enough consistent bowler to bowl at the death overs. Yes, he was lucky enough to give only 4 in second last over of the match however same Zaheer khan in his 9th over gave away 17 runs to put S.Africa right back into the game. (40th over Zaheer conceded 17 runs after which S.Africa needed 79 runs in last 10 overs with 7 wickets in hand , kind of cake walk).

India knows very well, they do not have bowlers who can defend in last 10 overs. Its very important for India to post over 350 runs target every time they bat first in sub continent pitches. With over 350 runs on board, while chasing, opposition team is more likely to make more mistakes in first 40 overs and hand over Victory to India. IF the team has lost just 3 wickets and 80 runs are required in last 10 overs, India is never going to be able to defend it.

While batting as well; there were lot of mistakes made. First 15 overs when India batted; there was not a single mistake from either Sehwag or Tendulkar. However thats when India had a chance to make a move. India should have took "BATTING POWERPLAY" on 16th over. G.Smith was clueless when India posted 128 runs with no wickets down in first 15 overs. Wouldnt it be great to just push him at the corner, I wonder. Smith was hoping that India do not take the power play and he can bring his spinners and restrict India to under 350. Batting powerplay at that time, could put India well within the reach of 400 runs.

Sachin Tendulkar scored 50 in 33 balls. After 15th over he was 37 balls 57 runs. Till that time, he was playing for Country and he was playing great. Compare 37 balls 57 runs against 92 balls 100 runs. From Strike rate of 154 to 108; thats a lot of change. If this is not playing for your own records, playing for scoring centuries, playing for Crowd, playing for Indians then what it is? Now Quickly lets glance through S.African scoreboard, Did anyone scored a century? Every one contributed to the Team's Victory. Not to forget, Sachin Tendulkar denied India 10 runs through his "defensive", "unfit" running between the wickets. However, Lets forget Tendulkar for a while, because Tendulkar's batting is not the concern for Team India. After all, he still hit a century with more than run a ball strike rate. Its what happens, after Tendulkar gets out in this particular game was horrifying.

Sending Pathan after the fall of Tendulkar's wicket was a bad move. Pathan hits the ball so powerfully and can clear the ground easily, he does not need to play inside the Power Play. In fact had Pathan not there in Power Play, fielder who caught might not even be there and it would have been a easy single for him. Lets give credit to Yuvraj and Dhoni for playing cautiously for couple of overs once they lost Pathan, Gambhir and Tendulkar in power play. Lets not blame Yuvraj too much for going for a shot on the last ball of a Power play, after all he did hit the six in previous over.

What happens after 43rd over, is clear lack of application from Indian lower order. Specially the dismissal of Kohli and Bhajji and Zaheer were just not acceptable. There needs to be a bit of blame need to go to Dhoni as well over there. He was in the middle with them and if he can not motivate them to play for India, then he is failing as a captain and as a premier batsman. He should have been talking with them every ball, and what is the requirement of Team India. From 283 for 5 to 296 all out is lack of determination.

Fitness or Talent

Tendulkar played a magnificent inning against England. He was focused and frozen while Sehwag was bombarding. He launch into the inning after the departure of Sehwag. He played cautiously, with a big score in mind; perhaps a century and he achieved his target. He is astute reader of media reports and statements prior to the game. He listen Swann to silence the Indian crowd and replied him with an elegant assault and hips of sixes.

India was outplayed in the run-chase by Strauss and Bell. England was cruising for a victory until Dhoni brought in Zaheer Khan as almost last throw of a dice. It’s amazing how 600 ball game gets changed in the span of 3 balls. Zaheer’s first over of third power play converted a soap opera into a top-notch Thriller.

Clearly, If India has to pick two match winners; they are Sachin Tendulkar and Zaheer Khan for their batting and bowling respectively. However they lacked so poorly in the third department called “Fielding” which actually cost India the game and one extra point.

There is no way to prove statistically, “the lack of effort” in the team game. Dhoni’s post-match comment of “We can not improve much on our fielding” was a honest confession of a team lead who is practically aware of the situation. Sachin Tendulkar and Zaheer Khan are perhaps spearhead of India’s batting and bowling department but they are no where close to being the Match-Fit.

You can not prove you are match fit, by scoring a hundred or taking 5 wickets. Match fitness is about being active and remaining actively involved throughout the span of 7 hour game. What was more disturbing was there was a lack of effort for fielding from both. Virat Kohli misfielded and dropped a catch, Harbhajan singh did not put 2 hands to try a catch, Raina took the eyes of the ball and misfielded, Gambhir’s throw was not good enough to reach the crease, are some of the examples which show India was poor in their fielding but there was no “Lack of effort” in above examples. In case of Sachin Tendulkar and Zaheer Khan; it was lack of effort. Lack of effort was due to the fact that they are scared that if they try harder in the field, they can pull a muscle or two and perhaps have to sit out from the rest of the tournament.

It’s almost like you are going in a war with 9 soldiers and you have to protect other two throughout 50 overs. They surely have the talent to produce match winning moments but do they have the match fitness? Answer is clearly No, they are not match fit. Next Question is to the selectors of the Indian team; would you select players in the team based on mach fitness OR that’s not a criteria at all. Is Indian team going back to the days of Nabjot Sidhu and Sanjay Manjrekar where, if they played a good knock; they would be sitting in the dressing room and 12^th man will be utilized of their “Lack of Effort”.

Take a leaf out of Australian’s book; Michael Hussey, their best batsman in one day format, is not in the team because he was not match fit. Can India do that for Sachin Tendulkar? Would India have not scored the same amount of total had Sachin not present? Would Sehwag and Gambhir are less threatening pair compare to Sachin and Sehwag? Wasn’t there occasions when India was bating where Sachin denied singles 3 or 4 times as it would stretch his thigh muscle? Wasn’t there a sign after scoring a century that Tendulkar was looking tired (compare the freshness of Strauss after fielding for 50 overs and then scoring a hundred)

Australians dropped out Symonds long time ago, because, he was not creating a good environment in the dressing room. Can India do that for Sreesanth?

There are questions with only one possible answer. “Yeh India hai yaar, yahan pe sab chalta hai”. Hopefully we get out of this, “Sab Chalta hai” mentality and start giving preference to what is right rather than what is politically correct.

Zindagi !!!

कुछ ख्वाब ऐसे देखे हमने, अनजानी सी बन गयी यह ज़िन्दगी !


प्यार,पैसा, शोहरत बन्दे के पास है न है सिर्फ अपनों की बंदगी !!



कभी वक़्त को भुला करते थे हम, अभी वक़्त ने हमें भुला दिया !!!

कुछ पाने की लालच ने , बहुत कुछ हम ने गवा दिया !!!

कभी हसी हमारे दामन में थी, अब रोना भी मुश्किल होने लगा !!!

जस्बात कुछ ऐसे होने लगे है, न दिल है, न यारो की दिल्लगी !!!

कुछ ख्वाब ऐसे देखे हमने, अनजानी सी बन गयी यह ज़िन्दगी !!!!!!!



साए को चुने की हमारी चाह थी , अंधेरो में लिपटी हमारी राह थी

जूनून ने जब दस्तक दी थी , चुपके से सुकून ने रुक्सत ली थी !!!

कभी दुनिया हमारी सुनथी थी, अब कहना मुश्किल होने लगा !!!

हालत कुछ ऐसे होने लगे, ना सांसे है ना है कोई दिलकशी !!!

कुछ ख्वाब ऐसे देखे हमने, अनजानी सी बन गयी यह ज़िन्दगी !!!!!!!