Saturday, April 26, 2025

$5 are actually million dollars

Constructing a stock portfolio is a work of art, patience and preservence. One of the many advantage of building a stock portfolio from scractch or bottom up approach is that you will inherit a courage to keep the stocks in it - during major correction. This is much better approach, then accumulating 100’s of thousand of dollars and then buy them (even if it is at bottom). Sure, buying stocks at the bottom has its own advantage, but not everyone is lucky to catch that bottom, so recipe cant be designed to “Time” the market. Another advantage of this method, is that you can start it when you have nothing - almost $1 or $5. This will also ensure, we are building the mind-set of saving every penny that we can during the “Accumulation” Period and then adding stocks iteratively. Perhaps all these words, may not be making a lot of sense, until we go to the bottom of the method, look through some of the pros and cons, get to the perhaps “FAQ” question, but when and if you read it again, it all may make sense. 


So, What is the “Bottom-up” approach, it is when you have $1 or $5, saved up somewhere, you begin the process of investing in stocks. Thanks to the “Robin Hood” which created a platform to buy stocks for “Free” without any commission and you can buy them as little as $1 in the decimals. Reason, you want to invest that $5 saved up in stocks, is because, that $5 is actually million of dollars, down the road (of course, provided, it has been invested in a company that grows and has future). 


Usual, stock market returns (in usa) are 8% (historically). So, if you have dividend re-invested, your money is most likely going to get doubled in the duration of 8 to 10 years. However, that is “Indexes” which has few “good” stocks and plenty of not so good stocks. Now, most “Growth” stocks, gets 20% return on an average per year, that means they double every 5 years - in terms of valuation (and growth of their revenue and profit). We will get to how to pick such stocks later, but for now, assume, that you have a company which is giving you 20% growth each year. That means it doubles every 5 years. So, your 5$ invested in year 1- is actually $10 in year 6. $20 in year 11. $40 in 15 years. $80 in 20 years. $160 in 25 years. $320 in 30 years. $640 in 35 years. $1280 in 40 years. $2500 (roughly) in 45 years. $5000 in 50 years. $10,000 in 55 years. $20,000 in 60 years. $40000 in 65 years. $80000 in 70 years. $160000 in 75 years. $320000 in 80 years. Half a million (roughly) in 85 years. a million in 90 years. 2 millions in 95 years. and 4 in 100 years. So, when it looked silly reading it earlier, $5 are actually 4 millions (or more) in 100 years. 


So, I know the usual argument, we dont live 100 years, We don’t and certainly we dont have next 100 years, when we get to the stage of starting our “Investing” journey. but most folks have families, which will live and see that $5 became millions. But I get it, we dont look that far beyond (unfortunately). Point that is important to learn here is that, you are putting that $5, so that it can grow and give much more than what they are worth today. Besides, you are not going to just stop by investing only $5. Its about creating a mind set, that what that $5 can do for you in future if put it in the right place. 

Wednesday, April 23, 2025

1 Million To Invest Today for 10 years

Someone recently asked for investment advice in a Facebook group. They mentioned having $1 million and wanted to invest it in the U.S. stock market. If I were in that position as of today (April 23, 2025), here’s how I would approach it:

I’d divide the investment across 40 stocks that I personally like or love, split into two categories:

Top Category (20 Stocks)

I’d allocate 3% to each, totaling $600,000. These are the stocks I have higher conviction in: AMZN, COST, CRWD, NVDA, PLTR, ABNB, DKS, ONON, MAR, HOOD, SOFI, OKTA, BABA, RBLX, AFRM, DKNG, TOST, MELI, UBER, ERJ

Bottom Category (20 Stocks)

I’d allocate 2% to each, totaling the remaining $400,000. These are still promising in my view, but I’d take a slightly more cautious approach: NFLX, SE, SHOP, DASH, NU, NET, TTWO, Z, COIN, COF, CMG, CHWY, TSLA, BKNG, CVNA, CELH, DECK, BIDU, HIMS, PATH

This approach gives me diversified exposure across a range of industries and risk profiles while reflecting my current preferences and confidence levels.

Friday, April 18, 2025

21st century belongs to ASIA

 



I keep saying this statement, in almost all occassions, whether it is someone trying to “Invest” for their future or select to migrate to India from the western countries. This statement may appear that I am anti-America, but it is not, I am just Pro-India, and that does not mean I am anti-America. I am an American Citizen, living in America since 2001, America has given me every penny that I have earned in my life, and I am very greatful to the opportunity given to me. America is a great country, but the “Best” days of America are behind them (unfortunately), that is why we have a tag line - “Make America Great Again” - winning two elections, because majority of them also believe their “Best” was in the past and we want to get there. America had a great 100+ years, mainly because Europe went through two wars, and America was the safe heaven. Of course, some smart policies and great brains of Americans, helped and lot of hard working people across the world, but it may struggle in the next 100 years. 


Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And weak men create hard times. ~ G. Michael Hopf.


America is having a “good times” for few decades now, strong dollar, strong economy, great military, stable democracy and what not - but that good times are creating weak men. Weakness where people are struggling to identify themselves whether they are even men or women. Weakness where you walk into a store and hand over $10, a cashier may even struggle to know how much money that needs to be given back (without the help of cash register telling them how much), a movement to “Bring Back Manufacturing jobs” does not even last for two weeks - because who wants to work hard in those factories? I can go on and give million such examples, but the youth is certainly not motivated enough to be the “BEST” in the world - and when I compare that with the youth in India - they are hungry for the success, they are willing to go extra miles to do what needs to be done. There are certainly “Hard Times” right now, but that hard times is creating strong men and stronger women. 


70% of the world population is in Asia. Next 100 years is going to be a “Consumer” based economy, and that consumer is sitting in Asia. America still holds the key - due to technology - but slowly technology is also getting its origination in Asia. Tik Tok is the first example - originated in Asia (Singapore), that is a better product than Facebook, twitter, instagram etc, used world wide. Payment system innovation in India can be a second example. In next couple of decades, we will see lot many technology advancements which will start happening in Asia. Not to blame, but “America First” philosophy can very soon be turned into “Isolate America” - if things does not change fast. 


No one has seen the future, but can you name the top 100 richest people living in the planet earth 1000 years ago? or even 500 years ago? Have they remain the richest now? or their kids? Stocks or Companies which were the top 30 years ago - are they at the top now? Its all a cycle, explained by the Hopf’s statement above. World is heading towards - “America is going to be the new Europe, China is going to be the new America and India is going to be the new China”…of course, not written in the stone - but most likely. 


But know this also - America is a big elephant - It is never easy to move that big elephant, so it will take years - decades, before things change. If you are in your late 40’s or 50’s, you may not change the country - because you will not see the change impacting you a great deal - in 15-20 years left of your lifespan, but if you are in your 20’s or even 30’s, you have 40+ years - You should be moving towards where the growth is - ASIA. You dont have to go to India (if you dont like it), it can be Singapore, or Dubai or Hong Kong or Australia or Japan but be closure to ASIA - invest it in the land or real estate or their stock market, and you will have mind blowing returns. Particularly to people who are coming to America on F1 or H1-B visa - well, you will struggle to get Green Card or better future for decades, and you dont know when you will be thrown out of the country, why would you want to go through the hell - when you can have better future in Asia/India, particularly now, when interest rates are so high in America, your real estate (or home) is not going to generate great value (as you will be paying lot interest money for years to come to the Banks). 


This is just my “opinion” and I can be Wrong.