BANK OF AMERICA:
TD AMERITRADE:
THOUGHTS: QQQ (Nasdaq 100) went very close to 1000 daily moving average and also in a monthly chart, it touched 50 month EMA - sort of critical levels and plus stocks were down huge in last two weeks, so oversold bounce was due. On top of it, it got Bank of England buying bonds news in the morning which created a massive rally day.
Bank of America:
Although conventional wisdom around FED's mandate is to control inflation over recession - there is a different point of view which needs to be addressed.
It is true that recession is fear among the poor class more - as they tend to lose jobs and it disturbs them more. Recession does impact everyone but not entirely and not as much as inflation. Inflation means price of every product and services goes up and no matter which class you belong to - you will feel the pain. In that regards, Fed is correct in addressing Inflation with higher priority even though it brings Recession.
However, the different side of Recession vs Inflation is that, common people can not fight recession on their own, however they can in a way control Inflation - by buying very limited items or only much needed items. I believe in general philosophy that, "Whatever People can do, People should do. Whatever people can not do, Government Must Do." Although - controlling inflation is not entirely government responsibility - (It is Fed's responsibility - which is sort of Government institution).
Poor and Lower middle class people can not create jobs and can not take necessary steps to come out of recession, However they can control their spending and in a way tackle inflation by reducing the demand side. So, Fed should perhaps slow down on their auto pilot mode of rate hike and let the steps they have taken control inflation - but if not slow down so that they do not bring severe recession - which they can control but people can't.
Important day tomorrow as Fed rate hike and commentary will dictate the next turn for market. Market will be expecting 75 basis point hike and Fed to acknowledge that economy is showing signs of weakness. If they continue to stand hawkish and remain on "Auto-Pilot" no matter what until inflation gets under control, than market may see another 10-15% correction. Sentiment though is overly negative and usually when retail and many big players have put in bearish bets - market does exactly opposite. So, "Expect the UnExpected".
I would be keeping an eye on 2 year bond yield. It is fast approaching 4% and suddenly becomes attractive choice with market correcting on almost weekly basis. 4% return in current environment may be very attractive for bond buyers and if bond buyers buy 2 year bonds then yield may come down a bit. It will also indicate that Fed may raise rate and go above 4% but they will not Hold that rate for long time. Current consensus is that they will hold rate at 4% for 11 months - that time seems too high - in my opinion and that will not only bring severe recession but also stagflation. Economy may not be able to allow Fed to keep rate at 4%. First casualty may be housing market and second job market and Fed may Pivot midway or within 3 months or so after reaching 4% interest rate.
Today's Trades:
Bank of America:
BANK OF AMERICA:
3900 was a very critical level for S&P and it has been breached. Weekly candle also shows bearish engulfing with volume, which only means we will continue to sell off. Many experts did believe we will retest June Lows - as inflation may have been peaked but it is not coming down - despite multiple rate hikes from Fed.
Next one month will be very crucial and another 10% correction is just around the corner. Although, we will technically get a good bounce - when we revisit June Lows (which incidentally will also be re-visiting 200 week moving average (EMA).
Whether 320-340 area will remain a "Historic Low" for the decade or just 2022 low - that remains to be seen and majority of it depends upon the "Inflation Data". Inflation is showing that it peaked in June (in year over year percentage wise), but it is not coming down yet and remained steady and stubborn. However MoM data does show decrease in inflation print but very marginal decrease of 0.01 and 0.03.
On, June 16, 2022 (which I still considered to be the bottom of this bear market - until proven otherwise), I selected the list of 30 stocks and created a consolidated portfolio. 3 Months down the road, there are some failures and there are some huge success. Here is the update from this list (https://viralpatel15.blogspot.com/2022/06/m1-finance-to-consolidated-portfolio.html)
SE, HZNP, DPZ, BIDU are three failures and FDX joins that list today.
Consolidated portfolio is up 18% compare to SPY/QQQ which are up 6%.
Some of them are one on one replacement such as Dominos is being replaced by Chipotle. Lam Research is replacement by ON semi conductors. BIDU (Chinese exposure) is replaced by IBN (ICICI - Indian Bank), SE (Singapore exposure and gaming stock) is replaced by TEAM (Australia exposure) etc. Added some exposure in DVN (Oil and Natural Gas), some defense MOH (Health care stock), COIN (Crypto exposure), RUN (Solar Energy), NU(replaces UPST - Fintech stock from South America), SNOW (replaces MDB), SRPT (Biotech replacement for HZNP), TTD (replacing TTWO - gaming stock to advertisement).
I will track their performance on quarterly basis and may replace few things based on their performance some time in Mid-December- 2022
New list of stocks are:
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THOUGHTS ON MARKET:
S&P 500 keep getting saved around 3900 area and that resilience can be attributed to Friday’s $3.2 trillion option expiration. Quadruple witching day - tomorrow - which means majority of the movement in stocks or indexes happens based on maxpain area. It is highly recommended to remain very light in options exposure around those days as movement on both sides can be very nasty. We will see the real movement next week - on or before Fed meeting.
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THOUGHTS ON MARKET:
Consolidating and choppy day at the market. Market is trying to digest the higher inflation print from yesterday. PPI # came as expected and since FED is in the blackout period, market is unsure how to read the slightly higher inflation print. Oil was down 10% in the inflation report but Food and elsewhere there was higher inflation. But will that prompt Fed to raise the rate 1% instead of 75 basis point? that remains to be seen. Tomorrow's jobless numbers will give some sort of idea - as if there are more people losing job - than Fed may not want to be aggressive as inflation was just slightly higher than anticipated move. Plus rate hikes have happened very recently, so Fed may want to give time to see whether it is making any effect on inflation or not.
In my opinion, Fed will raise only 75 basis point hike next week and market should be able to digest the bad news from inflation.
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THOUGHTS ON MARKET:
S&P 500 CLOSES 4.3% LOWER IN WORST DAY SINCE JUNE 11, 2020. Nasdaq closed more than 5% down as we got a surprise rise in inflation data in the morning. Anything above 8 was a bad news but 8.4 which is higher than July #'s really tanked the market. As it puts the question mark whether we saw inflation peak in June or not. We are in the blackout period from Fed - which means, we will not know how Fed is going to react to this and that puts uncertainty in the market - which is never a good news. Market awaits PPI Data tomorrow morning and we may get a minor dead cat bounce.
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Bank of America:
THOUGHTS ON MARKET:
Very very critical inflation numbers are due tomorrow morning. Anything over 8% inflation will be bad news for market, but less than 7% will confirm June Lows.
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Bank of America:
TRADES:
Bank of America:
THOUGHTS ON MARKET:
A very volatile day, but rally continues despite negative news from England where rate was raised by 75 basis point. However rally seemed defensive in nature - where Healthcare and Financials outperformed. Powell reiterated similar comments and despite market ended Green displaying negative news is priced in. Market is also waiting on big inflation print next week. We are still not out of the woods, but there are glimpses of clear light and road ahead. We could be in for 20% up or down in next 3 months, so have to watch market very closely.
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THOUGHTS ON MARKET:
Finally a day - when market opened red and we saw huge rally. Roy's prediction shared in earlier blog came true, we rally from 390. Also last week, huge amount of puts were being bought as part of the hedge from institution - like 8 billion worth so last half was more like squeeze.
Oil dropping also helped the cause - as it reduces inflation. Plus, Beige book showed American Economy showing signs of weak - that added the confirmation.
Tomorrow Fed Chairman Powell speaks and also job numbers.
TRADES:
Bank of America:
THOUGHTS ON MARKET:
Range bound - choppy session; Market is awaiting Fed Chairman Powell to speak on Thursday - to clarify on his remarks at Jackson Hole. My guess is - he will reiterate most things he said however he will clarify that Interest Rates around 4% by end of 2023 depends upon data. If Inflation gets controlled before that and economy is in recession, they may ease earlier. Market is waiting for that plus inflation data next week, before moving higher.
TRADES:
Bank of America:
Apparently, Good news was bad news for Market. Good job numbers means, Fed can raise 75 basis point in September meeting - if required. Market ended with daily chart displaying, "Bearish Engulfing" with volume also more than yesterday. Tuesday open - even if we open green - will remain weak. Market closed right at the trend-line from where it can bounce.
There is also another fear in the market as western countries trying to impose price structure for Russia to sell their oil. Russia may retaliate - by cutting the oil supply - increasing the price of oil - a big threat to inflation #.
However, things will largely depend upon Inflation #'s from August and if we continue to slide further and show up numbers which were right around May #'s - that will be big positive for market. Any number above 8% - will be bad news for market and we may very well revisit June Lows.
Bank of America:
BANK OF AMERICA: